Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Completing the Demographic Transition

Contents:

Author Info

  • John Bongaarts
  • Rodolfo A. Bulatao
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Despite ongoing declines in fertility in many countries, the population of the world is experiencing a period of rapid expansion, and its size is expected to reach 10 billion by the end of the demographic transition. Three causes of this growth are identified and quantified: 1) fertility above the replacement level of two surviving children per woman, 2) continuing declines in mortality, and 3) population momentum resulting from a young age structure. A set of simple analytic expressions is proposed for estimating these factors from standard demographic indicators. Population momentum is shown to be the main cause of future growth in most countries and regions. Copyright 1999 by The Population Council, Inc..

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1728-4457.1999.00515.x
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by The Population Council, Inc. in its journal Population and Development Review.

    Volume (Year): 25 (1999)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 515-529

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:25:y:1999:i:3:p:515-529

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0098-7921

    Order Information:
    Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0098-7921

    Related research

    Keywords:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. World Bank, 2006. "Fostering Higher Growth and Employment in the Kingdom of Morocco," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7114, March.
    2. Thomas Espenshade & Analia Olgiati & Simon Levin, 2011. "On Nonstable and Stable Population Momentum," Demography, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1581-1599, November.
    3. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:25:y:1999:i:3:p:515-529. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.