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On the Impact of Spatial Momentum

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  • Robert Schoen

    (Pennsylvania State University)

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    Abstract

    Momentum, the population growth that occurs after a fall in fertility to replacement level, has long been appreciated as a factor in the future population growth of many countries. This paper argues that another aspect of growing populations - their high proportion rural - is also a source of significant growth, and refers to the additional growth attributable to geographical redistribution as spatial momentum. Using simplifying assumptions, a model for analyzing spatial momentum is developed based on population composition, rates of growth, and levels of interregional migration. Calculations are then done using (i) hypothetical populations exhibiting a range of plausible demographic behavior, and (ii) the population of Mexico, 1970. The results show that spatial momentum can have a substantial impact on ultimate population size under commonly encountered circumstances.

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    File URL: http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol6/3/6-3.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its journal Demographic Research.

    Volume (Year): 6 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 3 (January)
    Pages: 49-66

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    Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:6:y:2002:i:3

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    Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/

    Related research

    Keywords: population growth; population momentum; spatial momentum; urbanization;

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    1. Martin Brockerhoff, 1999. "Urban Growth in Developing Countries: A Review of Projections and Predictions," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(4), pages 757-778.
    2. Young Kim & Robert Schoen & P. Sarma, 1991. "Momentum and the growth-free segment of a population," Demography, Springer, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 159-173, February.
    3. Shapiro, D. & Tambashe, B.O., 1999. "Fertility Transition in Urban and Rural Areas of Sub-Saharan Africa," Papers, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics 9-99-1, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
    4. A Rogers & F Willekens, 1978. "The spatial reproductive value and the spatial momentum of zero population growth," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 10(5), pages 503-518, May.
    5. D C, 1986. "Migration and settlement. A multiregional comparative study," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 41(3), pages 609-609.
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