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Stochastic methods in population forecasting

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  • Alho, Juha M.
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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V92-45NB9RR-C/2/8eebc78699688d02fcc8e91ac86c01e5
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 6 (1990)
    Issue (Month): 4 (December)
    Pages: 521-530

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:6:y:1990:i:4:p:521-530

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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    Cited by:
    1. Nico Keilman & Dinh Quang Pham & Arve Hetland, 2002. "Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(15), pages 409-454, May.
    2. Wilson, Chris, 2002. "Forecast errors in global population projections: implications for food," 2002 Conference (46th), February 13-15, 2002, Canberra 125608, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    3. W. Lutz & S. Scherbov, 1997. "Sensitivity Analysis of Expert-Based Probabilistic Population Projections in the Case of Austria," Working Papers ir97048, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    4. Giacometti, Rosella & Bertocchi, Marida & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2012. "A comparison of the Lee–Carter model and AR–ARCH model for forecasting mortality rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 85-93.
    5. Tuljapurkar, Shripad & Boe, Carl, 1999. "Validation, probability-weighted priors, and information in stochastic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 259-271, July.
    6. Oberhofer, Walter & Reichsthaler, Thomas, 2004. "Modelling Fertility: A Semi-Parametric Approach," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 396, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    7. Ortega, Jose Antonio & Poncela, Pilar, 2005. "Joint forecasts of Southern European fertility rates with non-stationary dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 539-550.
    8. Jeff Tayman & Stanley Smith & Jeffrey Lin, 2007. "Precision, bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts: an exploratory analysis of time series models," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 347-369, June.
    9. Wolfgang P. Lutz, 2001. "World population in 2050: assessing the projections: discussion," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
    10. Ronald Lee & Timothy Miller, 2001. "Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality," Demography, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 537-549, November.
    11. Han Lin Shang, 2012. "Point and interval forecasts of age-specific fertility rates: a comparison of functional principal component methods," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/12, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    12. Jeff Tayman, 2011. "Assessing Uncertainty in Small Area Forecasts: State of the Practice and Implementation Strategy," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 781-800, October.
    13. Stanley Smith & Jeff Tayman, 2003. "An evaluation of population projections by age," Demography, Springer, vol. 40(4), pages 741-757, November.
    14. Joan Costa-Font & Raphael Wittenberg & Concepció Patxot & Adelina Comas-Herrera & Cristiano Gori & Alessandra di Maio & Linda Pickard & Alessandro Pozzi & Heinz Rothgang, 2008. "Projecting Long-Term Care Expenditure in Four European Union Member States: The Influence of Demographic Scenarios," Social Indicators Research, Springer, vol. 86(2), pages 303-321, April.
    15. Han Lin Shang, 2012. "Point and interval forecasts of age-specific life expectancies," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(21), pages 593-644, November.
    16. Prskawetz, A. & Kogel, T. & Sanderson, W.C. & Scherbov, S., 2007. "The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 587-602.
    17. Howard Hogan & William Bell & Lynn Weidman & Allen Schirm, 2003. "Integrating Survey, Demographic, and Modeling Methods," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 3780, Mathematica Policy Research.
    18. D. Bauer & G. Feichtinger & W. Lutz & W.C. Sanderson, 1999. "Variances of Population Projections: Comparison of Two Approaches," Working Papers ir99063, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    19. Ronkainen , Vesa, 2012. "Stochastic modeling of financing longevity risk in pension insurance," Scientific Monographs E:44/2012, Bank of Finland.
    20. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    21. Alex Armstrong & Nick Draper & Ed Westerhout, 2008. "The impact of demographic uncertainty on public finances in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 104, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    22. Mikko Myrskylä & Joshua Goldstein, 2013. "Probabilistic Forecasting Using Stochastic Diffusion Models, With Applications to Cohort Processes of Marriage and Fertility," Demography, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 237-260, February.
    23. Alho, Juha A., 2002. "The Population of Finland in 2050 and Beyond," Discussion Papers 826, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

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