IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/popdev/v26y2000i1p137-143.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long‐Term Population Projections and the US Social Security System

Author

Listed:
  • Ronald Lee

Abstract

According to a report recently issued by the Technical Panel for the US Social Security Administration, the long‐term financial outlook for the system is worse than previously thought. The worsening projected by the panel in the long‐run funding imbalance of the Social Security System is mostly due to the recommendation by the panel to add an extra four years to the currently projected increase in life expectancy by 2075: from 81.8 years to 85.9 years. The panel recommended no change in the current intermediate projected long‐run TFR of 1.9 and net immigration of 900,000 persons per year. The recommendation to increase the projected gains in life expectancy was based on international trends as well as on historical trends in the United States and the absence of biological evidence ruling out such gains. Industrial countries have a history of under‐predicting the growth of their elderly population, and it is expected that large mortality adjustments may be needed in the projections for public pension programs also in industrial countries other than the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald Lee, 2000. "Long‐Term Population Projections and the US Social Security System," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(1), pages 137-143, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:26:y:2000:i:1:p:137-143
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2000.00137.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2000.00137.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2000.00137.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy Miller & Ronald Lee, 2000. "Immigration, Social Security, and Broader Fiscal Impacts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 350-354, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    2. Laura Stark & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2000. "The public perception and discussion of falling birth rates: the recent debate over low fertility in the popular press," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2000-009, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Pervi Sevak & Lucie Schmidt, 2008. "Immigrant-Native Fertility and Mortality Differentials in the United States," Working Papers wp181, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    4. Misbah Tanveer Choudhry & Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2016. "Age dependency and labour productivity divergence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(50), pages 4823-4845, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Milo Bianchi & Paolo Buonanno & Paolo Pinotti, 2012. "Do Immigrants Cause Crime?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(6), pages 1318-1347, December.
    2. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Eva Cárceles-Poveda & Selçuk Eren, 2011. "Effects of Legal and Unauthorized Immigration on the U.S. Social Security System," Working Papers wp250, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    3. Xavier Chojnicki, 2013. "The Fiscal Impact of Immigration in France: A Generational Accounting Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(8), pages 1065-1090, August.
    4. Andri Chassamboulli & Xiangbo Liu, 2024. "Immigration, Legal Status and Fiscal Impact," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 54, October.
    5. Gurgen Aslanyan, 2012. "Immigration Control & Long-Run Population Welfare," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp453, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    6. Chen, Hung-Ju & Fang, I-Hsiang, 2013. "Migration, social security, and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 386-399.
    7. Gurgen Aslanyan, 2014. "The migration challenge for PAYG," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(4), pages 1023-1038, October.
    8. Colas, Mark & Sachs, Dominik, 2022. "The Indirect Fiscal Benefits of Low-Skilled Immigration," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 352, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    9. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Boubtane, Ekrame & Coulibaly, Dramane, 2019. "Immigration and public finances in OECD countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 116-151.
    10. Edith Sand & Assaf Razin, 2006. "Immigration and the Survival of Social Security: A Political Economy Model," NBER Working Papers 12800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. David Love & Lucie Schmidt, 2015. "Comprehensive Wealth of Immigrants and Natives," Working Papers wp328, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    12. ., 2012. "Migration impact assessment: a state of the art," Chapters, in: Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot & Mediha Sahin (ed.), Migration Impact Assessment, chapter 1, pages 3-62, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Anthony Edo & Lionel Ragot & Hillel Rapoport & Sulin Sardoschau & Andreas Steinmayr & Arthur Sweetman, 2020. "An introduction to the economics of immigration in OECD countries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1365-1403, November.
    14. Edith Sand & Assaf Razin, 2007. "The Political-Economy Positive Role of the Social Security System in Sustaining Immigration (But Not Vice Versa)," NBER Working Papers 13598, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Assaf Razin & Jackline Wahba, 2015. "Welfare Magnet Hypothesis, Fiscal Burden, and Immigration Skill Selectivity," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 369-402, April.
    16. Edith Sand & Assaf Razin, 2008. "The Political-Economy Role of the Social Security System in Sustaining Migration," 2008 Meeting Papers 150, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Marcus H. Böhme & Sarah Kups, 2017. "The economic effects of labour immigration in developing countries: A literature review," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 335, OECD Publishing.
    18. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 2014. "Migration and Welfare State: Why is America Different from Europe?," NBER Working Papers 20450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Uri Dadush, 2017. "The Economic Effects of Refugee Return and Policy Implications," Research papers & Policy papers on Economic Trends and Policies 1708, Policy Center for the New South.
    20. Murat G. Kirdar, 2012. "Estimating The Impact Of Immigrants On The Host Country Social Security System When Return Migration Is An Endogenous Choice," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 453-486, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:26:y:2000:i:1:p:137-143. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0098-7921 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.