IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/nbr/nberch/9687.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Nutrition and the Decline in Mortality since 1700: Some Preliminary Findings

In: Long-Term Factors in American Economic Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Robert W. Fogel

Abstract

This paper uses the data in the NBER/CPE pilot sample of genealogies to create a new time series on life expectation in the U.S. since 1720. After attaining remarkably high levels toward the end of the eighteenth century, life expectation as measured by e0(10) began a decline that lasted about 80 years before beginning the new rise with which we have long been familiar. Second, time series on the average adult stature of national populations in North America and Europe are used as a measure of nutritional status. The properties of this measure in the analysis of labor welfare and an explanation for the high correlation between stature and the Cini ratio are discussed.The time series on stature is strongly correlated with the series on e0(10) and other measures of mortality. Third, these correlations are used to estimate the contribution of improvements in nutritional status (not diet alone but diet net of prior claims) to the decline in mortality in Europe and America since 1800. Improvements in nutritional status may have accounted for as ifiuch as four tenths of the decline in mortality rates, but nearly all of this effect was concentrated in the reduction of infant mortality. The new findings are used to resolve several paradoxes and the implication of the findings for the standard-of-living controversy are considered.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Robert W. Fogel, 1986. "Nutrition and the Decline in Mortality since 1700: Some Preliminary Findings," NBER Chapters, in: Long-Term Factors in American Economic Growth, pages 439-556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:9687
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c9687.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marvin Towne & Wayne Rasmussen, 1960. "Farm Gross Product and Gross Investment in the Nineteenth Century," NBER Chapters, in: Trends in the American Economy in the Nineteenth Century, pages 255-316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Meeker, Edward, 1976. "Mortality trends of southern blacks, 1850-1910: Some preliminary findings," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 13-42, January.
    3. Higgs, Robert, 1979. "Cycles and trends of mortality in 18 large American cities, 1871-1900," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 381-408, October.
    4. John D. Post, 1976. "Famine, Mortality, and Epidemic Disease in the Process of Modernization," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 29(1), pages 14-37, February.
    5. Condon-Paoloni, D. & Cravioto, J. & Johnston, F.E. & De Licardie, E.R. & Scholl, T.O., 1977. "Morbidity and growth of infants and young children in a rural Mexican village," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 67(7), pages 651-656.
    6. Campbell, Bruce M. S., 1983. "Arable Productivity in Medieval England: Some Evidence from Norfolk," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 379-404, June.
    7. Robert E. Gallman, 1969. "Trends in the Size Distribution of Wealth in the Nineteenth Century: Some Speculations," NBER Chapters, in: Six Papers on the Size Distribution of Wealth and Income, pages 1-30, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. William Fellner, 1978. "Contemporary Economic Problems, 1978," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 918290, September.
    9. Williamson, Jeffrey G., 1976. "American Prices and Urban Inequality Since 1820," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(2), pages 303-333, June.
    10. G. N. Tunzelmann, 1979. "Trends in Real Wages, 1750–1850, Revisited," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 32(1), pages 33-49, February.
    11. William Fellner, 1979. "Contemporary Economic Problems, 1979," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 918293, September.
    12. Temin, Peter, 1966. "Steam and Waterpower in the Early Nineteenth Century," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 187-205, June.
    13. Richard A. Easterlin, 1980. "Population and Economic Change in Developing Countries," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number east80-1, March.
    14. Kenneth A. Lockridge, 1966. "The Population of Dedham, Massachusetts, 1636—1736," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 19(2), pages 318-344, August.
    15. Gretchen Condran & Rose Cheney, 1982. "Mortality trends in Philadelphia: Age- and cause-specific death rates 1870–1930," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 19(1), pages 97-123, February.
    16. Stephen J. Kunitz, 1983. "Speculations on the European Mortality Decline," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 36(3), pages 349-364, August.
    17. Landes, David S., 1950. "The Statistical Study of French Crises," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 195-211, November.
    18. Anonymous, 1984. "World Development Report 1983. Edited by Rupert Pennant-Rea et al. (New York: Oxford University Press, 1983. Pp. x + 214. $20.00, cloth; $8.00, paper.)," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 78(2), pages 599-600, June.
    19. D. M. Palliser, 1982. "Tawney's Century: Brave New World or Malthusian Trap?," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 35(3), pages 339-353, August.
    20. The Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, 1960. "Trends in the American Economy in the Nineteenth Century," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number unkn60-1, March.
    21. Haines, Michael R., 1985. "Inequality and Childhood Mortality: a Comparison of England and Wales, 1911, and the United States, 1900," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(4), pages 885-912, December.
    22. John Knodel & Hallie Kintner, 1977. "The impact of breast feeding patterns on the biometric analysis of infant mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 14(4), pages 391-409, November.
    23. Higgs, Robert, 1973. "Mortality in rural America, 1870-1920: Estimates and conjectures," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 177-195.
    24. Matossian, Mary Kilbourne, 1984. "Mold Poisoning and Population Growth in England and France, 1750–1850," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 669-686, September.
    25. Smith, Daniel Scott, 1972. "The Demographic History of Colonial New England," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(1), pages 165-183, March.
    26. Shammas, Carole, 1983. "Food Expenditures and Economic Well-Being in Early Modern England," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 89-100, March.
    27. Lindert, Peter H., 1980. "English Occupations, 1670–1811," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 685-712, December.
    28. J. R. Kearl & Clayne L. Pope, 1986. "Choices, Rents, and Luck: Economic Mobility of Nineteenth-Century Utah Households," NBER Chapters, in: Long-Term Factors in American Economic Growth, pages 215-260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Sackett, D.L. & Chambers, L.W. & MacPherson, A.S. & Goldsmith, C.H. & Mcauley, R.G., 1977. "The development and application of indices of health: General methods and a summary of results," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 67(5), pages 423-428.
    30. David, Paul A., 1967. "The Growth of Real Product in the United States Before 1840: New Evidence, Controlled Conjectures," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 151-197, June.
    31. D. J. Oddy, 1983. "Urban Famine in Nineteenth-Century Britain: The Effect of the Lancashire Cotton Famine on Working-Class Diet and Health," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 36(1), pages 68-86, February.
    32. Kenneth L. Sokoloff, 1982. "The Heights of Americans in Three Centuries: Some Economic and Demographic Implications," UCLA Economics Working Papers 280, UCLA Department of Economics.
    33. John Komlos, "undated". "Stature and Nutrition in the Habsburg Monarchy: The Standard of Living and Economic Development," Articles by John Komlos 36, Department of Economics, University of Munich.
    34. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1977_32n1_0352 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Lee Soltow, 1969. "Six Papers on the Size Distribution of Wealth and Income," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number solt69-1, March.
    36. Michael Haines, 1979. "The use of model life tables to estimate mortality for the United States in the late nineteenth century," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(2), pages 289-312, May.
    37. Hannon, Joan Underhill, 1984. "Poverty in the Antebellum Northeast: The View from New York State's Poor Relief Rolls," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 1007-1032, December.
    38. Bennett, Merrill K. & Peirce, Rosamond H., 1961. "Change in the American National Diet, 1879-1959," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 2(2), pages 1-26.
    39. Gallman, Robert E., 1982. "Influences on the Distribution of Landholdings in Early Colonial North Carolina," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 549-575, September.
    40. Overton, Mark, 1979. "Estimating Crop Yields from Probate Inventories: An Example from EastAnglia, 1585–1735," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 363-378, June.
    41. Margo, Robert A. & Steckel, Richard H., 1983. "Heights of Native-Born Whites During the Antebellum Period," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 167-174, March.
    42. Pollard, Sidney, 1981. "Sheffield and Sweet Auburn—Amenities and Living Standards in the British Industrial Revolution: A Comment," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(04), pages 902-904, December.
    43. Vinovskis, Maris A., 1971. "The 1789 Life Table of Edward Wigglesworth," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(3), pages 570-590, September.
    44. Floud, Roderick, 1984. "Measuring the Transformation of the European Economies: Income, Health and Welfare," CEPR Discussion Papers 33, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    45. McCusker, John J., 1970. "The Rum Trade and the Balance of Payments of the Thirteen Continental Colonies, 1650–1775," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 244-247, March.
    46. Peter H. Lindert & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1983. "English Workers’Living Standards During the Industrial Revolution: A New Look," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 36(1), pages 1-25, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert W. Fogel, 1986. "Nutrition and the Decline in Mortality Since 1700: Some Additional Preliminary Findings," NBER Working Papers 1802, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lindert, Peter H. & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2013. "American Incomes Before and After the Revolution," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 73(3), pages 725-765, September.
    3. Robert William Fogel, 1990. "The Conquest of High Mortality and Hunger in Europe and America: Timing and Mechanisms," NBER Historical Working Papers 0016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Scott A. Carson, 2008. "Demographic, Residential, and Socioeconomic Effects on the Distribution of 19th Century African-American Stature," CESifo Working Paper Series 2479, CESifo.
    5. Paul A. David, 1996. "Real Income and Economic Welfare Growth in the Early Republic or, Another Try at Getting the American Story Straight," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _005, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Peter C. Mancall & Joshua L. Rosenbloom & Thomas Weiss, 2000. "Conjectural Estimates of Economic Growth in the Lower South, 1720 to 1800," NBER Historical Working Papers 0126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Birchenall, Javier A., 2007. "Economic Development and the Escape from High Mortality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 543-568, April.
    8. Robert A. Margo, 2002. "The North-South Wage Gap, Before and After the Civil War," NBER Working Papers 8778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Michael R. Haines, 1998. "Health, Height, Nutrition, and Mortality: Evidence on the "Antebellum Puzzle" from Union Army Recruits in the Middle of the Nineteenth Century," NBER Historical Working Papers 0107, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Thomas J. Weiss, 1992. "U. S. Labor Force Estimates and Economic Growth, 1800-1860," NBER Chapters, in: American Economic Growth and Standards of Living before the Civil War, pages 19-78, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Scott Alan Carson & Scott A. Carson, 2022. "Nineteenth and Early 20th Century Physical Activity and Calories by Gender and Race," CESifo Working Paper Series 10140, CESifo.
    12. Komlos, John, 2012. "A Three-Decade “Kuhnian” History of the Antebellum Puzzle: Explaining the shrinking of the US population at the onset of modern economic growth," Discussion Papers in Economics 12758, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    13. Chad Turner & Robert Tamura & Sean Mulholland & Scott Baier, 2007. "Education and income of the states of the United States: 1840–2000," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 101-158, June.
    14. Stegl, Mojgan & Baten, Joerg, 2009. "Tall and shrinking Muslims, short and growing Europeans: The long-run welfare development of the Middle East, 1850-1980," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 132-148, January.
    15. Scott A. Carson, 2010. "Nineteenth Century US African-American and White Female Statures: Insight from US Prison Records," CESifo Working Paper Series 3169, CESifo.
    16. Hans-Joachim Voth & Timothy Leunig, 1996. "Did smallpox reduce height? Stature and the standard of living in London, 1770-1873," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 49(3), pages 541-560, August.
    17. Alan L. Olmstead & Paul W. Rhode, 2014. "Were Antebellum Cotton Plantations Factories in the Field?," NBER Chapters, in: Enterprising America: Businesses, Banks, and Credit Markets in Historical Perspective, pages 245-276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. R. M. McInnis, 1986. "Output and Productivity in Canadian Agriculture, 1870-71 to 1926-27," NBER Chapters, in: Long-Term Factors in American Economic Growth, pages 737-778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Stokey, Nancy L., 2001. "A quantitative model of the British industrial revolution, 1780-1850," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 55-109, December.
    20. Rousseau, Peter L. & Sylla, Richard, 2005. "Emerging financial markets and early US growth," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 1-26, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:9687. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.