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Eta: A Persistent Phenomenon

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  • Carlos Pestana Barros
  • Luis Gil-Alana

Abstract

Most searchers performing unit root tests on terrorism series reject the null hypothesis of unit roots (I(1)) and conclude that terrorism is stationary (I(0)). In this paper we analyze ETA activity in Spain during the last 30 years by means of examining its degree of dependence across time, using fractional integration or I(d) techniques. The results show that the activity of ETA is persistent to some extent, with an order of integration of about 0.40, implying stationarity, but also long memory behavior. We argue that this strong degree of dependence between the observations might be explained by the historical background underlying the political conflict in the area. In addition, the results indicate that the most significant factors contributing to a reduction of violence are those related to political pacts among the political parties in the Basque region. In order to put an end to ETA's violence, these accords should involve both nationalist and non-nationalist groups.

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  • Carlos Pestana Barros & Luis Gil-Alana, 2006. "Eta: A Persistent Phenomenon," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 95-116.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:2:p:95-116
    DOI: 10.1080/10242690500464214
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    Cited by:

    1. Caroline Guibet Lafaye & Pierre Brochard, 2022. "Methodological approach to the evolution of a terrorist organisation: ETA, 1959–2018," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2453-2475, August.
    2. Carlos P. Barros & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011. "Terrorism: The Case of ETA," Chapters, in: Derek L. Braddon & Keith Hartley (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Conflict, chapter 16, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Prieto-Rodríguez, Juan & Rodríguez, Juan Gabriel & Salas, Rafael & Suarez-Pandiello, Javier, 2009. "Quantifying fear: The social impact of terrorism," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 803-817, September.
    4. Luís A. Gil-Alana & Carlos P. Barros, 2010. "A Note on the Effectiveness of National Anti-Terrorist Policies: Evidence from ETA," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 27(1), pages 28-46, February.
    5. Brandt, Patrick T. & Sandler, Todd, 2009. "Hostage taking: Understanding terrorism event dynamics," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 758-778, September.
    6. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Passos, Jose & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2006. "The timing of ETA terrorist attacks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 335-346, April.
    7. Kollias, Christos & Messis, Petros & Mylonidis, Nikolaos & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2009. "Terrorism and the effectiveness of security spending in Greece: Policy implications of some empirical findings," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 788-802, September.

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