IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v31y2009i5p758-778.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hostage taking: Understanding terrorism event dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Brandt, Patrick T.
  • Sandler, Todd

Abstract

This paper employs advanced time series methods to identify the dynamic properties of three hostage taking series. The immediate and long run multipliers of three covariates--successful past negotiations, violent ends, and deaths--are identified. Each hostage series responds differently to the covariates. Past concessions have the strongest impact on generating future kidnapping events, supporting the conventional wisdom to abide by a stated no-concession policy. Each hostage series has different changepoints caused by a variety of circumstances. Skyjackings and kidnappings are negatively correlated, while skyjackings and other hostage events are positively correlated. Policy recommendations are offered.

Suggested Citation

  • Brandt, Patrick T. & Sandler, Todd, 2009. "Hostage taking: Understanding terrorism event dynamics," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 758-778, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:31:y:2009:i:5:p:758-778
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161-8938(09)00012-X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Atkinson, Scott E & Sandler, Todd & Tschirhart, John, 1987. "Terrorism in a Bargaining Framework," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 1-21, April.
    2. Brandt, Patrick T. & Williams, John T., 2001. "A Linear Poisson Autoregressive Model: The Poisson AR(p) Model," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 164-184, January.
    3. Beom Lee & Walter Enders & Todd Sandler, 2009. "9/11: What Did We Know And When Did We Know It?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 79-93.
    4. Lapan, Harvey E & Sandler, Todd, 1988. "To Bargain or Not to Bargain: That Is the Question," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 16-21, May.
    5. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2009. "Hostage Taking: Determinants of Terrorist Logistical and Negotiation Success," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 46(6), pages 739-756, November.
    6. Carlos Pestana Barros, 2003. "An intervention analysis of terrorism: The spanish eta case," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 401-412.
    7. Im, Eric Iksoon & Cauley, Jon & Sandler, Todd, 1987. "Cycles and Substitutions in Terrorist Activities: A Spectral Approach," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 238-255.
    8. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    9. Todd Sandler & John L. Scott, 1987. "Terrorist Success in Hostage-Taking Incidents," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(1), pages 35-53, March.
    10. Eric Iksoon Im & Jon Cauley & Todd Sandler, 1987. "Cycles and Substitutions in Terrorist Activities: A Spectral Approach," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 238-255, May.
    11. Sandler, Todd & Tschirhart, John T. & Cauley, Jon, 1983. "A Theoretical Analysis of Transnational Terrorism," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 36-54, March.
    12. Carlos Pestana Barros & Luis Gil-Alana, 2006. "Eta: A Persistent Phenomenon," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 95-116.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Fink & Mark Pingle, 2014. "Kidnap insurance and its impact on kidnapping outcomes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 481-499, September.
    2. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2013. "Determinants of the Demise of Terrorist Organizations," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(4), pages 774-792, April.
    3. Syed Hasanat Shah & Hafsa Hasnat & Mohsin Hasnain Ahmad, 2016. "The Effects of the Human Cost of Terror on National Income, Private Consumption and Investment in Pakistan," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 17(2), pages 216-235, September.
    4. Brandt, Patrick T. & George, Justin & Sandler, Todd, 2016. "Why concessions should not be made to terrorist kidnappers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 41-52.
    5. Malik, Zahra & Zaman, Khalid, 2013. "Macroeconomic consequences of terrorism in Pakistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1103-1123.
    6. Meierrieks, Daniel & Renner, Laura, 2023. "Islamist terrorism and the status of women," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Meierrieks, Daniel & Renner, Laura, 2021. "Islamist terrorism and the role of women," Discussion Paper Series 2021-02, University of Freiburg, Wilfried Guth Endowed Chair for Constitutional Political Economy and Competition Policy.
    8. Shan, Xiaojun & Zhuang, Jun, 2018. "Modeling cumulative defensive resource allocation against a strategic attacker in a multi-period multi-target sequential game," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 12-26.
    9. Charlinda Santifort & Todd Sandler, 2013. "Terrorist success in hostage-taking missions: 1978–2010," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 125-137, July.
    10. Patrick T. Brandt & Todd Sandler, 2010. "What Do Transnational Terrorists Target? Has It Changed? Are We Safer?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(2), pages 214-236, April.
    11. Todd Sandler, 2010. "Terrorism and Policy: Introduction," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(2), pages 203-213, April.
    12. Holmes, Jennifer S. & Palao, Agustin & Callenes, Mercedez & Silva, Neil Ortiz & Cardenas, Alvaro, 2023. "Attacking the grid: Lessons from a guerrilla conflict and efforts for peace in Colombia: 1990–2018," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    13. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2014. "An empirical analysis of alternative ways that terrorist groups end," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 25-44, July.
    14. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Todd Sandler, 2023. "The Trade-Offs of Counterterrorism Policies," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 105(3), pages 177-197, July.
    15. Kerim Peren Arin & Eberhard Feess & Torben Kuhlenkasper & Otto F. M. Reich, 2019. "Negotiating with Terrorists: The Costs of Compliance," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(1), pages 305-317, July.
    16. Economou Athina & Kollias Christos, 2015. "Terrorism and Political Self-Placement in European Union Countries," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 217-238, April.
    17. Elu Juliet U. & Price Gregory N., 2012. "Remittances and the Financing of Terrorism In Sub-Saharan Africa: 1974 - 2006," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-42, July.
    18. Terrence August & Duy Dao & Marius Florin Niculescu, 2022. "Economics of Ransomware: Risk Interdependence and Large-Scale Attacks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(12), pages 8979-9002, December.
    19. Kim, Wukki & Sandler, Todd, 2021. "Duration and competing-risks determinants of terrorist hostage-taking incidents," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    20. M. Vannini & B. McCannon & C. Detotto, 2012. "Understanding Ransom Kidnapping and Its Duration," Working Paper CRENoS 201219, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sandler, Todd & Enders, Walter, 2004. "An economic perspective on transnational terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-316, June.
    2. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger, "undated". "Terrorism: Deterrence May Backfire," IEW - Working Papers 136, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    3. Brandt, Patrick T. & George, Justin & Sandler, Todd, 2016. "Why concessions should not be made to terrorist kidnappers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 41-52.
    4. Phillips Peter J, 2011. "Lone Wolf Terrorism," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-31, March.
    5. Rehman, Faiz Ur & Nasir, Muhammad & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "What have we learned? Assessing the effectiveness of counterterrorism strategies in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 487-495.
    6. Sylvain Baumann, 2018. "Protection, Technological Transfer and Alliance against Terrorist Conflict," Post-Print hal-02949083, HAL.
    7. Muhammad Islam & Wassim Shahin, 2001. "Applying economic methodology to the war on terrorism," Forum for Social Economics, Springer;The Association for Social Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 7-26, September.
    8. Olaf J. de Groot & Matthew D. Rablen & Anja Shortland, 2012. "Barrgh-gaining with Somali Pirates," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 74, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger, 2005. "Measuring terrorism," Chapters, in: Alain Marciano & Jean-Michel Josselin (ed.), Law and the State, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Dwight Lee & Todd Sandler, 1989. "On the optimal retaliation against terrorists: The paid-rider option," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 141-152, May.
    11. Alexander Fink & Mark Pingle, 2014. "Kidnap insurance and its impact on kidnapping outcomes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 481-499, September.
    12. Suresh Ramakrishnan & Shamaila Butt & Melati Ahmad Anuar, 2017. "The Impact of Macroeconomic, Oil Prices and Socio-economic Factors on Exchange Rate in Pakistan: An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 489-499.
    13. Sean P. O'brien, 1996. "Foreign Policy Crises and the Resort to Terrorism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 40(2), pages 320-335, June.
    14. Kollias, Christos & Messis, Petros & Mylonidis, Nikolaos & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2009. "Terrorism and the effectiveness of security spending in Greece: Policy implications of some empirical findings," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 788-802, September.
    15. Shortland, Anja & Vothknecht, Marc, 2011. "Combating “maritime terrorism” off the coast of Somalia," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 133-151.
    16. Sylvain Baumann, 2009. "Protection and technology transfer against a terrorist threat," Post-Print hal-02311532, HAL.
    17. repec:ebl:ecbull:eb-09-00572 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler, 2000. "Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 44(3), pages 307-332, June.
    19. Margaret A. Wilson, 2000. "Toward a Model of Terrorist Behavior in Hostage-Taking Incidents," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 44(4), pages 403-424, August.
    20. Todd Sandler, 2003. "Collective Action and Transnational Terrorism," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(6), pages 779-802, June.
    21. Jain, Sanjay & Mukand, Sharun W., 2004. "The economics of high-visibility terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 479-494, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:31:y:2009:i:5:p:758-778. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.