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Hostage taking: Understanding terrorism event dynamics

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Author Info

  • Brandt, Patrick T.
  • Sandler, Todd

Abstract

This paper employs advanced time series methods to identify the dynamic properties of three hostage taking series. The immediate and long run multipliers of three covariates--successful past negotiations, violent ends, and deaths--are identified. Each hostage series responds differently to the covariates. Past concessions have the strongest impact on generating future kidnapping events, supporting the conventional wisdom to abide by a stated no-concession policy. Each hostage series has different changepoints caused by a variety of circumstances. Skyjackings and kidnappings are negatively correlated, while skyjackings and other hostage events are positively correlated. Policy recommendations are offered.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V82-4VJBTK1-4/2/9e1887118fbf0e081169dc74a28f201d
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 31 (2009)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 758-778

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:31:y:2009:i:5:p:758-778

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

Related research

Keywords: Kidnappings Skyjackings No-concession policy Impact multipliers Poisson autoregressive model Changepoint models Reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods;

References

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  1. Carlos Pestana Barros & Luis Gil-Alana, 2006. "Eta: A Persistent Phenomenon," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 95-116.
  2. Atkinson, Scott E & Sandler, Todd & Tschirhart, John, 1987. "Terrorism in a Bargaining Framework," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 1-21, April.
  3. Carlos Pestana Barros, 2003. "An intervention analysis of terrorism: The spanish eta case," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 401-412.
  4. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  5. Im, Eric Iksoon & Cauley, Jon & Sandler, Todd, 1987. "Cycles and Substitutions in Terrorist Activities: A Spectral Approach," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 238-55.
  6. Lapan, Harvey E & Sandler, Todd, 1988. "To Bargain or Not to Bargain: That Is the Question," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 16-21, May.
  7. Beom Lee & Walter Enders & Todd Sandler, 2009. "9/11: What Did We Know And When Did We Know It?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 79-93.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. M. Vannini & B. McCannon & C. Detotto, 2012. "Understanding Ransom Kidnapping and Its Duration," Working Paper CRENoS 201219, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  2. Malik, Zahra & Zaman, Khalid, 2013. "Macroeconomic consequences of terrorism in Pakistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1103-1123.

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