Hostage taking: Understanding terrorism event dynamics
AbstractThis paper employs advanced time series methods to identify the dynamic properties of three hostage taking series. The immediate and long run multipliers of three covariates--successful past negotiations, violent ends, and deaths--are identified. Each hostage series responds differently to the covariates. Past concessions have the strongest impact on generating future kidnapping events, supporting the conventional wisdom to abide by a stated no-concession policy. Each hostage series has different changepoints caused by a variety of circumstances. Skyjackings and kidnappings are negatively correlated, while skyjackings and other hostage events are positively correlated. Policy recommendations are offered.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.
Volume (Year): 31 (2009)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735
Kidnappings Skyjackings No-concession policy Impact multipliers Poisson autoregressive model Changepoint models Reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods;
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