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Fractional Integration with Drift: Estimation in Small Samples

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Author Info
Smith, Anthony A, Jr
Sowell, Fallaw
Zin, Stanley E

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Abstract

We examine the finite-sample behavior of estimators of the order of integration in a fractionally integrated time-series model. In particular, we compare exact time-domain likelihood estimation to frequency-domain approximate likelihood estimation. We show that over-differencing is of critical importance for time-domain maximum-likelihood estimation in finite samples. Over-differencing moves the differencing parameter (in the over-differenced model) away from the boundary of the parameter space, while at the same time obviating the need to estimate the drift parameter. The two estimators that we compare are asymptotically equivalent. In small samples, however, the time-domain estimator has smaller mean squared error than the frequency-domain estimator. Although the frequency-domain estimator has larger bias than the time-domain estimator for some regions of the parameter bias, it can also have smaller bias. We use a simulation procedure which exploits the approximate linearity of the bias function to reduce the bias in the time-domain estimator.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 22 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 103-16
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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:22:y:1997:i:1:p:103-16

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  1. Bond, Derek & Harrison, Michael J & Hession, Niall & O’Brien, Edward J., 2006. "Some Empirical Observations on the Forward Exchange Rate Anomaly," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/06, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Ana Pérez & Esther Ruiz, 2001. "Modelos De Memoria Larga Para Series Económicas Y Financieras," Documentos de Trabajo de Estadística y Econometría ds010101, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jurgen A. Doornik & Marius Ooms, 2001. "Computational Aspects of Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average Models," Economics Papers 2001-W27, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Emma M. Iglesias & Garry D. A. Phillips, 2005. "Analysing one-month Euro-market interest rates by fractionally integrated models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 95-106, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. M. Ooms & J.A. Doornik, 1999. "Inference and forecasting for fractional autoregressive integrated moving average models; with an application to US and UK inflation," Econometric Institute Report 171, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2005. "Testing for Long Memory and Nonlinear Time Series: A Demand for Money Study," Trinity Economics Papers tep20021, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. James G. MacKinnon & Anthony A. Smith, 1995. "Approximate Bias Correction in Econometrics," Working Papers 919, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Carlos Pestana Barros & Luis Gil-Alana, 2006. "Eta: A Persistent Phenomenon," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 95-116, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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