This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case-Control Study for the Basque Country

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Alberto Abadie
Javier Gardeazabal

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper investigates the economic effects of conflict, using the terrorist conflict in the Basque Country as a case study. Our analysis rests on two different strategies. First, we use a combination of other regions to construct a 'synthetic' control region which resembles many relevant economic characteristics of the Basque Country before the outset of political terrorism in the 1970's. The subsequent economic evolution of this 'counterfactual' Basque Country without terrorism is compared to the actual experience of the Basque Country. We find that, after the outbreak of terrorism, per capita GDP in the Basque Country declined about 10 percent points relative to the synthetic control region. Moreover, this gap seemed to widen in response to spikes in terrorist activity. The second part of this study uses the truce declared in September 1998 as a natural experiment to estimate the effects of the conflict. If the terrorist conflict was perceived to have a negative impact on the Basque economy, stocks of firms with a significant part of their business in the Basque Country should have shown a positive relative performance as the truce became credible, and a negative relative performance at the end of the cease-fire. We find evidence that is consistent with this conjecture using event study methods.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w8478.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8478.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Sep 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8478

Note: LS
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Venieris, Yiannis P & Gupta, Dipak K, 1986. "Income Distribution and Sociopolitical Instability as Determinants of Savings: A Cross-sectional Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 873-83, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Alesina, Alberto, et al, 1996. " Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
    Other versions:
  3. Rene M. Stulz, 2000. "U.S. Banks, Crises, and Bailouts: From Mexico to LTCM," NBER Working Papers 7529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Income distribution, political instability, and investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1203-1228, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 1996. "Terrorism and Foreign Direct Investment in Spain and Greece," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(3), pages 331-52.
  7. Benhabib, Jess & Rustichini, Aldo, 1996. " Social Conflict and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 125-42, March.
  8. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "The Growth of Nations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-1), pages 275-326. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Mauro, Paolo, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Daron Acemoglu & James Robinson, 1999. "A Theory of Political Transitions," Working papers 99-26, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  12. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Massimo Guidolin & Eliana La Ferrara, 2005. "The economic effects of violent conflict: evidence from asset market reactions," Working Papers 2005-066, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  2. Massimo Guidolin & Eliana La Ferrara, 2006. "Diamonds are forever, wars are not. Is conflict bad for private firms?," Working Papers 2005-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2008. "What causes terrorism?," Working Papers 12, University of Paderborn, CIE Center for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger, . "Terrorism: Deterrence May Backfire," IEW - Working Papers iewwp136, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
  5. Amy Finkelstein, 2003. "Health Policy and Technological Change: Evidence from the Vaccine Industry," NBER Working Papers 9460, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Carlos Pestana Barros, 2003. "An intervention analysis of terrorism: the spanish eta case," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 401-412, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Stefano DellaVigna & Eliana La Ferrara, 2007. "Detecting Illegal Arms Trade," NBER Working Papers 13355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jordi Pons-i-Novell & Ramon Tremosa-i-Balcells, 2005. "Macroeconomic effects of Catalan fiscal deficit with the Spanish state (2002--2010)," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(13), pages 1455-1463, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Carlos P. Barros & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2006. "Eta Terrorism:Police Action, Political Measures And The Influence Of Violence On Economic Activity In The Basque Country," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 06-03, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
  10. Sumon Kumar Bhaumik & Ira N. Gang & Myeong-Su Yun, 2007. "Rationality as a Barrier to Peace: Micro-Evidence from Kosovo," IZA Discussion Papers 2682, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger, . "Measuring Terrorism," IEW - Working Papers iewwp171, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
  12. Ziv Naor-super-1, 2006. "Untimely Death, The Value Of Certain Lifetime And Macroeconomic Dynamics," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 343-359, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Ouarda Merrouche, 2006. "Economic Consequences of Wars: Evidence from Landmine Contamination in Mozambique," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/22, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  14. Jose-Luis Evia & Roberto Laserna & Stergios Skaperdas, 2008. "Socio-Political Conflict and Economic Performance in Bolivia," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Ouarda Merrouche, 2007. "Landmines, Poverty and Recovery: Instrumental Variables Evidence from Mozambique," Working Papers 200709, Geary Institute, University College Dublin. [Downloadable!]
  16. Ouarda Merrouche, 2006. "The long-term educational cost of war: evidence from landmine contamination in Cambodia," IFS Working Papers W06/11, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  17. Johansson-Stenman, Olof, 2006. "Mad Cows, Terrorism and Junk Food: Should Public Policy Reflect Subjective or Objective Risks?," Working Papers in Economics 194, Göteborg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  18. Carlos Pestana Barros & Luis Gil-Alana, 2006. "Eta: A Persistent Phenomenon," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 95-116, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Shamit Chakravarti & Rina Bhattacharya & Benedict J. Clements & Sanjeev Gupta, 2002. "Fiscal Consequences of Armed Conflict and Terrorism in Low- and Middle-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/142, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Springer Verlag was the first commercial publisher to be listed on RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-21.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.