Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation
AbstractMacroeconomics has a long tradition of inspecting and interpreting patterns in graphs of aggregate data. However, the move towards more precise quantification of macroeconomic phenomena has seen academics shift away from a study of turning points, which are a natural and obvious way of summarizing business cycles, towards measures of co-movement in detrended series. This shift arise from several developments, but an important one was the belief among academics that Burns and Mitchell's methods lacked the statistical basis and, hence, the precision required in modern macroeconomics. We adopt the older perspective that business cycles are to be defined in terms of the turning points in the level of economic activity. We show that such turning points can be associated with a well defined sequence of outcomes and can therefore be precisely analyzed. In turn this enables us to explore how various parametric models of aggregate output generate a cycle through the interaction of trend movements in activity with the volatility and serial correlation in growth rates. One of the strongest points in the rhetoric of modern business cycle theory is that trend and cycles should not be divorced. Consequently, any definition of the business cycle in terms of the co-movement of detrended data has to find the task of integration a difficult one. In contrast, we show that a return to the older tradition of studying the classical cycle in the level of economic activity produces a natural interpretation of the origin of the cycle in terms of the interaction of trend and the second moments of growth rates. This seems a critical advantage for the approach taken in this paper. An important issue that has also been debated in the literature is whether non-linear models are required to make a business cycle. Using the techniques developed in this paper we dissect the cycle of a number of countries and find little evidence that non-linearities, of the type investigated in the literature, a
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.
Volume (Year): 49 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566
Other versions of this item:
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18.
- Timmermann, Allan, 2000.
"Moments of Markov switching models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 75-111, May.
- Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Detrending and turning points," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 614-623, April.
- Burnside, Craig, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 513-532, May.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Knowing the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n12, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998.
"Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series,"
NBER Working Papers
6528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64 Elsevier.
- Daniel E. Sichel, 1992.
"Inventories and the three phases of the business cycle,"
Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section
128, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-77, July.
- Kim, Kunhong & Buckle, R A & Hall, V B, 1994. "Key Features of New Zealand Business Cycles," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(208), pages 56-73, March.
- Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser, 1989.
"Real business cycles and the test of the Adelmans,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser, 1989. "Real Business Cycles and the Test of the Adelmans," NBER Working Papers 3160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- King, R.G. & Plosser, C.I., 1989. "Real Business Cycles And The Test Of The Adelmans," RCER Working Papers 204, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Harding, Don, 1997. "The Definition, Dating and Duration of Cycles," MPRA Paper 3357, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lawrence J. Cristiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1998. "The business cycle: it's still a puzzle," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 56-83.
- Wecker, William E, 1979. "Predicting the Turning Points of a Time Series," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(1), pages 35-50, January.
- Wen, Yi, 1998. "Can a real business cycle model pass the Watson test?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 185-203, June.
- Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M, 1995.
"Output Dynamics in Real-Business-Cycle Models,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 492-511, June.
- Adrian Pagan, 1997. "Towards an Understanding of Some Business Cycle Characteristics," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 30(1), pages 1-15.
- Durland, J Michael & McCurdy, Thomas H, 1994.
"Duration-Dependent Transitions in a Markov Model of U.S. GNP Growth,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 279-88, July.
- J. Michael Durland & Thomas H. McCurdy, 1993. "Duration Dependent Transitions in a Markov Model of U.S. GNP Growth," Working Papers 887, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1994.
"Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective,"
NBER Working Papers
4643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hess, Gregory D & Iwata, Shigeru, 1997. "Measuring and Comparing Business-Cycle Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(4), pages 432-44, October.
- Canova, Fabio, 1993.
"Detrending and Business Cycle Facts,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Simkins, Scott P., 1994. "Do real business cycle models really exhibit business cycle behavior?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 381-404, April.
- Ilse Mintz, 1972. "Dating American Growth Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Research: Retrospect and Prospect Vol 1: The Business Cycle Today, pages 39-88 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Canova, Fabio, 1999.
"Does Detrending Matter for the Determination of the Reference Cycle and the Selection of Turning Points?,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 126-50, January.
- Fabio Canova, 1994. "Does detrending matter for the determination of the reference cycle and the selection of turning points?," Economics Working Papers 113, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 1995.
- Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pagan, Adrian, 1997. "Policy, Theory, and the Cycle," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 19-33, Autumn.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Methods and Problems in Business Cycle Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 696-715, November.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.