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The Definition, Dating and Duration of Cycles

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Author Info

  • Harding, Don

Abstract

The ultimate objective of this paper is to discuss the duration of business cycles and the related issue of the probability of recession. To reach that objective it is necessary to first agree on a definition of business cycles. It is also necessary to agree on how to define the key features of business cycles and to agree on the rules for identifying and dating these key features. Although not strictly necessary for this paper, it is also helpful to discuss why we seek to identify and date key features of the business cycles.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3357/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 3357.

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Date of creation: Sep 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3357

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Related research

Keywords: Business cycle; recession; business cycle dating; probability of recession;

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References

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  1. Amartya Sen, 1997. "Maximization and the Act of Choice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 745-780, July.
  2. Davis, Steven J & Haltiwanger, John C, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 819-63, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Saubhik Deb, 2006. "Output Growth, Capital Flow Reversals and Sudden stop Crises," Departmental Working Papers 200606, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  2. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
  3. knani, ramzi & fredj, ali, 2010. "Mondialisation et fluctuations des cycles économiques
    [globalisation and business cycle fluctuation]
    ," MPRA Paper 22755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Christopher Bajada, 2005. "Unemployment and the underground economy in Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 177-189.
  5. Saubhik Deb, 2006. "Trade First and Trade Fast: A Duration Analysis of Recovery from Currency Crisis," Departmental Working Papers 200607, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  6. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Knowing the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n12, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.

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