The Definition, Dating and Duration of Cycles
AbstractThe ultimate objective of this paper is to discuss the duration of business cycles and the related issue of the probability of recession. To reach that objective it is necessary to first agree on a definition of business cycles. It is also necessary to agree on how to define the key features of business cycles and to agree on the rules for identifying and dating these key features. Although not strictly necessary for this paper, it is also helpful to discuss why we seek to identify and date key features of the business cycles.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 3357.
Date of creation: Sep 1997
Date of revision:
Business cycle; recession; business cycle dating; probability of recession;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
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