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The cyclicality of hires, separations, and job-to-job transitions

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Author Info
Robert Shimer

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Abstract

This paper measures the job-finding, separation, and job-to-job transition rates in the United States from 1948 to 2004. The job-finding and job-to-job transition rates are strongly procyclical and the separation rate is nearly acyclical, especially since 1985. The author develops a simple model in which unemployed workers search for jobs and employed workers search for better jobs. The model predicts that an increase in either the job-finding rate or the separation rate raises the job-to-job transition rate, which is qualitatively and quantitatively consistent with the available evidence. In contrast, if the job-finding rate were acyclical and the separation rate countercyclical, as is the conventional wisdom, the model predicts that the job-to-job transition rate would be counterfactually countercyclical.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): Jul ()
Pages: 493-508
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2005:i:jul:p:493-508:n:v.87no.4

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Keywords: Job hunting Labor turnover

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Boeri, Tito, 1996. "Is Job Turnover Countercyclical?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(4), pages 603-25, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Christopher L. Foote, 1998. "Trend Employment Growth And The Bunching Of Job Creation And Destruction," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 809-834, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Employment Efficiency and Sticky Wages: Evidence from Flows in the Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 11183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. John Kennan, 2006. "Private Information, Wage Bargaining and Employment Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 11967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Krause, M.U. & Lubik, T.A., 2004. "On-the-job search and the cyclical dynamics of the labor market," Discussion Paper 92, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Katharine G. Abraham & Robert Shimer, 2001. "Changes in Unemployment Duration and Labor Force Attachment," NBER Working Papers 8513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Ramey, Garey & Watson, Joel, 1997. "Contractual Fragility, Job Destruction, and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(3), pages 873-911, August.
    Other versions:
  9. Solon, Gary, 1986. "Effects of Rotation Group Bias on Estimation of Unemployment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 105-09, January.
  10. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1991. "The Cyclical Behavior of the Gross Flows of U.S. Workers," NBER Reprints 1582, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Other versions:
  11. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Employment Efficiency and Sticky Wages: Evidence from Flows in the Labor Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 397-407, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Cole, Harold L & Rogerson, Richard, 1999. "Can the Mortensen-Pissarides Matching Model Match the Business-Cycle Facts?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(4), pages 933-59, November.
  13. Oliver Jean Blanchard & Finn E. Kydland, 1989. "Macroeconomic implications," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 201-213.
  14. Davis, Steven J & Haltiwanger, John C, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 819-63, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Employment Fluctuations with Equilibrium Wage Stickiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 50-65, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Bruce Fallick & Charles A. Fleischman, 2004. "Employer-to-employer flows in the U.S. labor market: the complete picture of gross worker flows," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  17. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1994. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1350-68, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1994. "Search Unemployment with On-the-Job Search," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(3), pages 457-75, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. George A. Akerlof & Andrew K. Rose & Janet L. Yellen, 1988. "Job Switching and Job Satisfaction in the U.S. Labor Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1988-2), pages 495-594. [Downloadable!]
  20. Burdett, Kenneth & Mortensen, Dale T, 1998. "Wage Differentials, Employer Size, and Unemployment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 257-73, May.
  21. Barlevy, Gadi, 2002. "The Sullying Effect of Recessions," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 69(1), pages 65-96, January.
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mariano Bosch & Edwin Goni & William Maloney, 2007. "The Determinants of Rising Informality in Brazil: Evidence from Gross Worker Flows," IZA Discussion Papers 2970, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Guido W. Imbens & Lisa M. Lynch, 2006. "Re-Employment Probabilities over the Business Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 2167, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Mariano Bosch & William Maloney, 2007. "Gross Worker Flows in the Presence of Informal Labor Markets: Evidence from Mexico, 1987-2002," IZA Discussion Papers 2864, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  4. Bosch, Mariano & Maloney, William, 2006. "Gross worker flows in the presence of informal labor markets : the Mexican experience 1987-2002," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3883, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Régis Barnichon, 2007. "The Shimer Puzzle and the Correct Identification of Productivity Shocks," CEP Discussion Papers dp0823, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  6. Murat Tasci, 2007. "On-the-job search and labor market reallocation," Working Paper 0725, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  7. Michael W. Elsby & Ryan Michaels & Gary Solon, 2007. "The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 12853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Ronald Bachmann, 2005. "Labour Market Dynamics in Germany: Hirings, Separations, and Job-to-Job Transitions over the Business Cycle," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-045, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Helge Braun & Reinout De Bock & Riccardo DiCecio, 2006. "Aggregate shocks and labor market fluctuations," Working Papers 2006-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  10. José A.F. Machado & Pedro Portugal & Juliana Guimaraes, 2006. "U.S. Unemployment Duration: Has Long Become Longer or Short Become Shorter?," IZA Discussion Papers 2174, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  11. Kenneth Beauchemin & Murat Tasci, 2007. "Diagnosing labor market search models: a multiple-shock approach," Working Paper 0720, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  12. Régis Barnichon, 2007. "Productivity, Aggregate Demand and Unemployment Fluctuations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0819, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  13. Ellen Rissman, 2007. "Labor market transitions and self-employment," Working Paper Series WP-07-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  14. Eric French & Bhashkar Mazumder & Christopher Taber, 2005. "The changing pattern of wage growth for low skilled workers," Working Paper Series WP-05-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  15. Pedro S. Martins, 2007. "Heterogeneity in Real Wage Cyclicality," IZA Discussion Papers 2929, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Bosch, Mariano & Maloney, William F., 2008. "Cyclical Movements in Unemployment and Informality in Developing Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 3514, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  17. Guillaume Rocheteau & Murat Tasci, 2008. "Positive and normative effects of a minimum wage," Working Paper 0801, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  18. Thomas B. King & James Morley, 2005. "In search of the natural rate of unemployment," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2005-05, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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