Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Knowing the Cycle

Contents:

Author Info

  • Don Harding

    (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne)

  • Adrian Pagan

    (The Australian National Univeristy and The University of Melbourne)

Abstract

Policy makers are primarily interested in fluctuations in the level of activity - the classical cycle. Academics have in recent times focused their efforts on studying fluctuations and co-movement in aggregate variables that have been rendered stationary after some appropriate transformation. That is academics focus on the growth cycle. One reason for this shift in focus was the impression among academics that Burns and Mitchell's work lacked the precision required in modern macroeconomics. In this paper we show that pattern recognition algorithms which emulate Burns and Mitchell's approach to the cycle can be constructed and used to collect precise information on the classical cycle. The information so marshaled comprises the duration, amplitude, and cumulative movements of output within business cycle phases. We show that this information can be used to assess a range of business cycle models that have been proposed in the literature.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.melbourneinstitute.com/downloads/working_paper_series/wp1999n12.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne in its series Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series with number wp1999n12.

as in new window
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: May 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp1999n12

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010 Australia
Phone: +61 3 8344 2100
Fax: +61 3 8344 2111
Email:
Web page: http://www.melbourneinstitute.com/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Gordon, Stephen & St-Amour, Pascal, 1997. "Asset Prices with Contingent Preferences," Cahiers de recherche 9712, Université Laval - Département d'économique, revised 08 Jun 1998.
  2. King, R.G. & Plosser, C.I., 1989. "Real Business Cycles And The Test Of The Adelmans," RCER Working Papers 204, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  3. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
  4. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Methods and Problems in Business Cycle Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 696-715, November.
  5. Simkins, Scott P., 1994. "Do real business cycle models really exhibit business cycle behavior?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 381-404, April.
  6. Michael T. Kiley, 1999. "Partial adjustment and staggered price setting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, 1998. "Endogenous business cycles and the dynamics of output, hours, and consumption," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Bart Turtelboom & Peter Isard & Eswar Prasad, 1998. "Multimod Mark III: The Core Dynamic and Steady State Model," IMF Occasional Papers 164, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Ramey, Garey & Watson, Joel, 1997. "Contractual Fragility, Job Destruction, and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(3), pages 873-911, August.
  10. Daniel E. Sichel, 1992. "Inventories and the three phases of the business cycle," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 128, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Huang, K.X. & Liu, Z., 1999. "Staggered Contracts and Business Cycle Persistence," Papers 305, Minnesota - Center for Economic Research.
  12. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
  13. Collard, Fabrice, 1998. "Spectral and persistence properties of cyclical growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 463-488, November.
  14. Fisher, Lance A & Otto, Glenn & Voss, Graham M, 1996. "Australian Business Cycle Facts," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(67), pages 300-320, December.
  15. Pagan, Adrian, 1997. "Policy, Theory, and the Cycle," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 19-33, Autumn.
  16. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, October.
  17. Peter Temin, 1998. "Causes of American business cycles: an essay in economic historiography," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 37-64.
  18. Kim, Kunhong & Buckle, R A & Hall, V B, 1994. "Key Features of New Zealand Business Cycles," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(208), pages 56-73, March.
  19. Harding, Don, 1997. "The Definition, Dating and Duration of Cycles," MPRA Paper 3357, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp1999n12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jenny Chen).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.