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Regional business cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist? What might drive them?

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  • Viv B. Hall
  • C. John McDermott

Abstract

We establish classical business cycles, for New Zealand's 14 regions and aggregate national activity. Regional cycles rarely die of old age but are terminated by particular events. Concordance statistic measures show significant contemporaneous associations between the New Zealand cycle and 11 of the regional cycles. Over half the bi-regional co-movements are not significant. Geographical proximity influences co-movement between regions, as do unusually dry climatic conditions. Neither real national house price movements, nor net migration movements co-move significantly with regional cycle phases. For key regions, movements in New Zealand's terms of trade, milksolids' prices, dairy land prices and total rural land prices are significant. Rural business cycle activity has therefore remained a remarkably dominant factor. Copyright (c) 2007 the author(s). Journal compilation (c) 2007 RSAI.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Papers in Regional Science.

Volume (Year): 86 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (06)
Pages: 167-191

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Handle: RePEc:bla:presci:v:86:y:2007:i:2:p:167-191

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1056-8190

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  1. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Scott, Alasdair, 2002. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 277-296, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sin, Isabelle & Brunton, Emma & Hendy, Joanna & Kerr, Suzi, 2005. "The likely regional impacts of an agricultural emissions policy in New Zealand: Preliminary analysis," 2005 Conference, August 26-27, 2005, Nelson, New Zealand 98506, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  2. Grimes, Arthur, 2005. "Regional and industry cycles in Australasia: Implications for a common currency," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 380-397, June.
  3. Sunoong Hwang & Yongsung Chang, 2011. "Asymmetric Phase Shifts in U.S. Industrial Production Cycles," 2011 Meeting Papers 31, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
  5. David C Maré, 2005. "Indirect Effects of Active Labour Market Policies," HEW 0509004, EconWPA.
  6. Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil II: Die Zyklendatierung," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(14), pages 24-31, 07.
  7. Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Intra & Inter-Regional Industry Shocks: A New Metric with an Application to Australasian Currency Union," Macroeconomics 0509019, EconWPA.
  8. David C. Maré & Michelle Poland, 2005. "Defining Geographic Communities," Working Papers 05_09, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  9. Jacques Poot & Bill Cochrane & Sandra Baxendine, 2005. "Description and Spatial Analysis of Employment Change in New Zealand Regions 1986-2001," Population Studies Centre Discussion Papers dp-57, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre.
  10. Willie Lahari, 2011. "Assessing Business Cycle Synchronisation - Prospects for a Pacific Islands Currency Union," Working Papers 1110, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2011.
  11. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2007:i:4:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Viv B. Hall & John McDermott, 2006. "The Ups and Downs of New Zealand House Prices," Working Papers 06_03, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  13. Tsoulfidis, L. & Dergiades, Th., 2006. "The Inflation-Capacity Utilization Conundrum: Evidence from the Canadian Economy," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(2).
  14. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2006. "The New Zealand Business Cycle: Return To Golden Days?," CAMA Working Papers 2006-21, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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