New Zealand Treasury
Treasury Working Paper Series
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2013
- 13/08 This paper examines estimation of the elasticity of taxable income using instrumental variable regression methods. It is argued that the standard instrument for the net-of-tax rate - the rate that would be applicable post-reform but with unchanged income levels - is unsatisfactory in contexts where there are substantial exogenous changes in taxable income. Two alternative tax rate instruments are proposed, using estimates of the dynamics of taxable income for a panel of taxpayers over a period that involves no tax changes. The parameters derived from this procedure are then used to construct counterfactual post-reform incomes that would be expected in the absence of reform. The first method is based on the tax rate each individual would face if income were equal to expected income, conditional on income in two periods before the tax change. The second alternative uses the form of the conditional distribution of income for each taxpayer to obtain an instrument based on the expected tax rate. The methods are applied to the tax change in New Zealand in 2001. It is found that the proposed new instruments significantly outperform the standard instrument, in particular there are substantial improvements using the expected tax rate
by Simon Carey & John Creedy & Norman Gemmell & Josh Teng - 13/07 Tax Policy with Uncertain Future Costs: Some Simple Models
by Christopher Ball & John Creedy - 13/06 Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections
by John Creedy & Kathleen Makale - 13/05 New Zealand Households and the 2008/09 Recession
by Christopher Ball & Michael Ryan - 13/04 Measuring Saving Rates in New Zealand: An Update
by Emma Gorman & Grant M Scobie & Yongjoon Paek - 13/03 Export performance, invoice currency, and heterogeneous exchange rate pass-through
by Richard Fabling & Lynda Sanderson - 13/02 The Effects of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand: Evidence from a VAR Model with Debt Constraints
by Oscar Parkyn & Tugrul Vehbi - 13/01 An Analysis of Benefit Flows in New Zealand Using a Social Accounting Framework
by Omar Aziz & Nick Carroll & John Creedy
2012
- 12/05 Economy-Wide Impacts of Industry Policy
by Anita King - 12/04 Average Marginal Income Tax Rates for New Zealand, 1907-2009
by Fiona McAlister & Debasis Bandyopadhyay & Robert Barro & Jeremy Couchman & Norman Gemmell & Gordon Liao - 12/03 Contemporary Microeconomic Foundations for the Structure and Management of the Public Sector
by Iris Claus & John Creedy & Josh Teng - 12/02 Health and Retirement of Older New Zealanders
by Emma Gorman & Grant M Scobie & Andy Towers - 12/01 Contemporary Microeconomic Foundations for the Structure and Management of the Public Sector
by Lewis Evans & Graeme Guthrie & Neil Quigley
2011
- 11/06 Foreign Acquisition and the Performance of New Zealand Firms
by Richard Fabling & Lynda Sanderson - 11/05 Tax Rates and Revenue Changes: Behavioural and Structural Factors
by John Creedy & Norman Gemmell - 11/04 KiwiSaver: An Initial Evaluation of the Impact on Retirement Saving
by David Law & Lisa Meehan & Grant M Scobie - 11/03 Economic Imbalances: New Zealand's Structural Challenge
by Jean-Pierre Andre - 11/02 Modelling Shocks to New Zealand's Fiscal Position
by Craig Fookes - 11/01 New Zealand's Exchange Rate Cycles: Impacts and Policy
by Gemma Mabin
2010
- 10/10 New Zealand's Exchange Rate Cycles: Evidence and Drivers
by Gemma Mabin - 10/09 Why are Real Interest Rates in New Zealand so High? Evidence and Drivers
by Natalie Labuschagne & Polly Vowles - 10/08 Estimating New Zealand's Structural Budget Balance
by Oscar Parkyn - 10/07 Fiscal Institutions in New Zealand and the Question of a Spending Cap
by Tracy Mears & Gary Blick & Tim Hampton & John Janssen - 10/06 Income and Occupational Intergenerational Mobility in New Zealand
by Matthew Gibbons - 10/04 The Cost of Ill Health
by Heather Holt - 10/03 Health and Labour Force Participation
by Heather Holt - 10/02 Healthy, Wealthy and Working: Retirement Decisions of Older New Zealanders
by James Enright & Grant M Scobie - 10/01 Challenges and Choices: Modelling New Zealand’s Long-term Fiscal Position
by Matthew Bell & Gary Blick & Oscar Parkyn & Paul Rodway & Polly Vowles - 10/01 Health and Wealth
by Simon Anastasiadis
2009
- 09/06 Improving the Management of the Crown’s Exposure to Risk
by Timothy Irwin & Oscar Parkyn - 09/05 A Simple Model of Housing Rental and Ownership with Policy Simulations
by Andrew Coleman & Grant M. Scobie - 09/04 Saving Rates of New Zealanders: A Net Wealth Approach
by Grant M. Scobie & Katherine Henderson - 09/03 Household Debt in New Zealand
by Katherine Henderson & Grant M. Scobie - 09/02 An Introduction to the New Zealand Treasury Model
by Michael Ryan & Kam Leong Szeto - 09/01 Multi-Product Exporters and Product Turnover Behaviour of New Zealand Exporters
by Muge Adalet
2008
- 08/04 Equity and Efficiency Measures of Tax-Transfer Systems: Some Evidence for New Zealand
by John Creedy & Jamas Enright & Norman Gemmell & Nick McNabb - 08/03 The Contribution of Foreign Borrowing to the New Zealand Economy
by Anthony Makin & Wei Zhang & Grant Scobie - 08/02 Roles of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand
by Felicity C Barker & Robert A Buckle & Robert W St Clair - 08/01 Does Quality Matter in Labour Input? The Changing Pattern of Labour Composition in New Zealand
by Kam Leong Szeto & Simon McLoughlin
2007
- 07/06 The Challenge of Structural Change in APEC Economies
by Robert A Buckle & Amy A Cruickshank - 07/05 The Risks and Opportunities from Globalisation
by Wayne Stevens - 07/04 Housing in the Household Portfolio and Implications for Retirement Saving: Some Initial Finding from SOFIE
by Grant Scobie & Trinh Le & John Gibson - 07/03 Adaptive Governance and Evolving Solutions to Natural Resource Conflicts
by Kevin Guerin - 07/02 An Analysis of Tax Revenue Forecast Errors
by Martin Keene & Peter Thomson - 07/01 Productivity, Capital-Intensity and Labour Quality at Sector Level in New Zealand and the UK
by Geoff Mason & Matthew Osborne
2006
- 06/11 Toward a Model of Firm Productivity Dynamics
by David Law & Bob Buckle & Dean Hyslop - 06/10 Treasury’s Forecasting Performance: A Head-to-Head Comparison
by Khoon Lek Goh & Daniel Lawrence - 06/09 Past, Present and Future Developments in New Zealand’s Terms of Trade
by Philip Borkin - 06/08 An empirical investigation of fiscal policy in New Zealand
by Iris Claus & Aaron Gill & Boram Lee & Nathan McLellan - 06/07 Housing: An Analysis of Ownership and Investment Based on the Household Savings Survey
by Mark van Zijll de Jong & Grant M. Scobie - 06/06 Use of Targets to Improve Health System Performance: English NHS Experience and Implications for New Zealand
by Nicholas Mays - 06/05 Investigating Health Technology Diffusion in New Zealand – How Does it Spread and Who Stands to Gain?
by Louise Allsopp - 06/04 Estimating the costs of crime in New Zealand in 2003/04
by Tim Roper & Andrew Thompson - 06/03 Affordability of Housing: Concepts, Measurement and Evidence
by Mark Robinson & Grant M. Scobie & Brian Hallinan - 06/02 Migration and Economic Growth: a 21st Century Perspective
by Cat Moody - 06/01 The Role of R&D in Productivity Growth: The Case of Agriculture in New Zealand: 1927 to 2001
by Julia Hall & Grant M Scobie
2005
- 05/11 Income Growth and Earnings Variations in New Zealand, 1998—2004
by Dean Hyslop & Suresh Yahanpath - 05/10 Measures of human capital: A review of the literature
by Trinh Le & John Gibson & Les Oxley - 05/09 The effect of New Zealand Superannuation eligibility age on the labour force participation of older people
by Roger Hurnard - 05/08 Regional Economic Performance in New Zealand: How Does Auckland Compare?
by Geoff Lewis & Steven Stillman - 05/07 The changing gender distribution of paid and unpaid work in New Zealand
by Paul Callister - 05/06 Women’s participation in the labour force
by Grant Johnston - 05/05 Capital Shallowness: A Problem for New Zealand?
by Julia Hall & Grant Scobie - 05/04 Returns to Scale, Technical Progress and Total Factor Productivity Growth in New Zealand Industries
by Kevin J Fox - 05/03 The Living Standards, Incomes and Accommodation Costs of Older New Zealanders Revisited
by Roger Hurnard & Dean Hyslop & Ivan Tuckwell - 05/02 Taxes vs Permits: Options for Price-Based Climate Change Regulation
by Isabelle Sin & Suzi Kerr & Joanna Hendy - 05/01 The Contributions from Firm Entry, Exit and Continuation to Labour Productivity Growth in New Zealand
by David Law & Nathan McLellan
2004
- 04/25 Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reductions in New Zealand: A Minimum Disruption Approach
by John Creedy & Catherine Sleeman - 04/24 Adult literacy and economic growth
by Grant Johnston - 04/23 Carbon Taxation, Prices and Welfare in New Zealand
by John Creedy & Catherine Sleeman - 04/22 Women’s Retirement Incomes in New Zealand: A Household Bargaining Approach
by John Gibson & Trinh Le & Grant Scobie - 04/21 Adult Equivalence Scales, Inequality and Poverty in New Zealand
by John Creedy & Catherine Sleeman - 04/20 Household incomes in New Zealand: The impact of the market, taxes and government spending, 1987/88–1997/98
by Ron Crawford & Grant Johnston - 04/19 Institutions, Firms and Economic Growth
by Jane Frances - 04/18 Trade and Migration to New Zealand
by John Bryant & Murat Genc & David Law - 04/17 Financial Systems and Economic Growth: An Evaluation Framework for Policy
by Iris Claus & Veronica Jacobsen & Brock Jera - 04/16 Review of Workplace Skills, Technology Adoption and Firm Productivity: A Review
by Sid Durbin - 04/15 "Managing for Outcomes" in the New Zealand Public Management System
by Anna-Luis Cook - 04/14 Population Ageing and Government Health Expenditures in New Zealand, 1951-2051
by John Bryant & Audrey Teasdale & Martin Tobias & Jit Cheung & Mhairi McHugh - 04/13 New Zealand’s Diaspora and Overseas-born Population
by John Bryant & David Law - 04/12 Saving for Retirement: New Evidence for New Zealand
by Grant Scobie & John Gibson & Trinh Le - 04/11 Firm Dynamics in New Zealand: A Comparative Analysis with OECD Countries
by Duncan Mills & Jason Timmins - 04/10 Estimating a New Zealand NAIRU
by Kam Leong Szeto & Melody Guy - 04/09 Global Connectedness and Bilateral Economic Linkages - Which Countries?
by Jim Rose & Wayne Stevens - 04/08 The Impact of Workplace and Personal Superannuation Schemes on Net Worth: Evidence from the Household Savings Survey
by Grant M Scobie & Trinh Le - 04/07 Labour Force Participation and GDP in New Zealand
by John Bryant & Veronica Jacobsen & Matthew Bell & Daniel Garrett - 04/06 Theory vs Reality: Making Environmental Use Rights Work in New Zealand
by Kevin Guerin - 04/05 Measuring Productivity using the Index Number Approach: An Introduction
by Nathan McLellan - 04/04 Healthy, wealthy and wise? A review of the wider benefits of education
by Grant Johnston - 04/03 Youth Minimum Wage Reform and the Labour Market
by Dean Hyslop & Steven Stillman - 04/02 Theories of the Family and Policy
by Veronica Jacobsen & Lindy Fursman & John Bryant & Megan Claridge & Benedikte Jensen - 04/01 The Effects on New Zealand Households of an Increase in The Petrol Excise Tax
by John Creedy
2003
- 03/35 Qualifications, Employment and the Value of Human Capital, 1986-2001
by Dean Hyslop & Dave Mare & Jason Timmins - 03/34 Population Ageing in New Zealand: The Impact on Living Standards and the Optimal Rate of Saving with a Flexible Real Exchange Rate
by Ross Guest & Grant Scobie & John Bryant - 03/33 Reweighting the New Zealand Household Economic Survey for Tax Microsimuilation Modelling
by John Creedy & Ivan Tuckwell - 03/32 Household Saving Behaviour in New Zealand: Why do Cohorts Behave Differently?
by Grant M Scobie & John K Gibson - 03/31 Competition Policy in Small Distant Open Economies: Some Lessons from the Economics Literature
by Lewis Evans and Patrick Hughes - 03/30 Three Policy Options for Crown Financial Policy
by Eric Hansen - 03/29 The Excess Burden of Taxation and Why it (Approximately) Quadruples When the Tax Rate Doubles
by John Creedy - 03/28 Geometric Return and Portfolio Analysis
by Brian McCulloch - 03/27 The Ageing of the New Zealand Population, 1881-2051
by John Bryant - 03/26 Work and Family Balance: An Economic View
by Lindy Fursman & Veronica Jacobsen & Jason Varuhas - 03/25 A Comparison of the NZTM and FPS Models of the New Zealand Economy
by Kam Leong Szeto & Paul Gardiner & Richard Gray & David Hargreaves - 03/24 Encouraging Quality Regulation: Theories and Tools
by Kevin Guerin - 03/23 New Zealand Labour Supply from 1991-2001: An Analysis Based on a Discrete Choice Structural Utility Model
by Guyonne Kalb & Rosanna Scutella - 03/22 Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Consumption Expenditure in New Zealand?
by Khoon Lek Goh - 03/21 Objectives, Targets and Instruments for Crown Financial Policy
by Eric Hansen - 03/20 Discrete Hours Labour Supply Modelling: Specification, Estimation and Simulation
by John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb - 03/19 Asymmetric Information, Financial Intermediation and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: A Critical Review
by Iris Claus & Arthur Grimes - 03/18 New Zealand’s Social Assistance System: Financial Incentives to Work
by Patrick Nolan - 03/17 Survey Reweighting for Tax Microsimulation Modelling
by John Creedy - 03/16 New Zealand’s Production Structure: An International Comparison
by Iris Claus & Kathy Li - 03/15 Modelling the Effect of Population Ageing on Government Social Expenditures
by John Bryant - 03/14 Fiscal Policy, Growth and Convergence in Europe
by Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller - 03/13 Wage and Employment Rates in New Zealand from 1991 to 2001
by Guyonne Kalb & Rosanna Scutella - 03/12 Productivity Measurement: Alternative Approaches and Estimates
by Peter Mawson & Kenneth I Carlaw & Nathan McLellan - 03/11 Taxation, Reranking and Equivalence Scales
by Justin van de Ven & John Creedy - 03/10 Population Ageing In New Zealand: Implications for Living Standards and the Optimal Rate of Saving
by Ross Guest & John Bryant & Grant Scobie - 03/09 The impact of monetary policy on New Zealand business cycles and inflation variability
by Robert A Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Nathan McLellan - 03/08 Labour Supply Incentives in Alternative Tax and Transfer Schemes: A Diagrammatic Introduction
by John Creedy - 03/07 Can population projections be used for sensitivity tests on policy models?
by John Bryant - 03/06 Productivity in New Zealand 1988 to 2002
by Melleny Black & Melody Guy & Nathan McLellan - 03/05 The Built-in Flexibility of Income and Consumption Taxes in New Zealand
by John Creedy & Norman Gemmell - 03/04 Demographic Change and New Zealand’s Economic Growth
by John Bryant - 03/03 Geography, Trade and Growth: Problems and Possibilities for the New Zealand Economy
by Philip McCann - 03/02 Property Rights and Environmental Policy: A New Zealand Perspective
by Kevin Guerin - 03/01 Changes in New Zealand's Production Structure: An Input Output Analysis
by Iris Claus
2002
- 02/30 Indicators of Fiscal Impulse for New Zealand
by Renee Philip & John Janssen - 02/29 Low Wage Jobs and Pathways to Better Outcomes
by Sue Richardson & Lauren Miller-Lewis - 02/28 Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections
by John Creedy & Grant M Scobie - 02/27 An Analysis of a Cash Flow Tax for Small Business
by Peter Wilson - 02/26 A structural VAR model of the New Zealand business cycle
by Robert A Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Heather Kirkham & Nathan McLellan & Jared Sharma - 02/25 Consumption Externalities and the Role of Government: The Case of Alcohol
by Felicity Barker - 02/24 Publicly Financed Education in an Endogenous Growth Model
by John Creedy & Norman Gemmell - 02/23 Investing in Well-being: An Analytical Framework
by Veronica Jacobsen & Nicholas Mays & Ron Crawford & Barbara Annesley & Paul Christoffel & Grant Johnston & Sid Durbin - 02/22 Income Tax Revenue Elasticities with Endogenous Labour Supply
by John Creedy & Norman Gemmell - 02/21 Determining the Discount Rate for Government Projects
by Louise Young - 02/20 Institutions and Decision Making for Sustainable Development
by Basil Sharp - 02/19 Modelling New Zealand Consumption Expenditure over the 1990s
by Khoon Lek Goh & Richard Downing - 02/18 Protection against Government Takings: Compensation for Regulation?
by Kevin Guerin - 02/17 Education and Maori Relative Income Levels over Time: The Mediating Effect of Occupation, Industry, Hours of Work and Locality
by Sholeh A Maani - 02/16 New Zealand’s Family Assistance Tax Credits: Evolution and Operation
by Patrick Nolan - 02/15 Striking a Balance: Centralised and Decentralised Decisions in Government
by Natalie Brady - 02/14 Measuring Economic Growth in New Zealand
by Peter Mawson - 02/13 How many jobs? A leading indicator model of New Zealand employment
by Edda Claus & Iris Claus - 02/12 Institutions, Social Norms and Well-being
by Murray Petrie - 02/11 Population Ageing and the Efficiency of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand
by Nick Davis & Richard Fabling - 02/10 Growing Pains: New Zealand Qualitative Evidence on Hurdles to Exporting Growth
by Geoff Simmons - 02/09 Inter industry linkages in New Zealand
by Iris Claus - 02/08 Growth and volatility regime switching models for New Zealand GDP data
by Robert A Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson - 02/07 A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the New Zealand economy
by Kam Leong Szeto - 02/06 Ethnicity and Early Labour Market Experiences in the Christchurch Health and Development Study
by Tim Maloney - 02/05 Long-term fiscal projections and their relationship with the intertemporal budget constraint: An application to New Zealand
by John Janssen - 02/04 The Economics of Population Ageing
by John Stephenson & Grant Scobie - 02/03 Subsidiarity: Implications for New Zealand
by Kevin Guerin - 02/02 Saving in New Zealand: Measurement and Trends
by Iris Claus & Grant Scobie - 02/01 Modelling Regional Labour Market Adjustment in New Zealand
by Wai Kin Choy & David C Mare & Peter Mawson
2001
- 01/34 Does Crown Financial Portfolio Composition Matter?
by Nick Davis - 01/33 Calm after the Storm?: Supply-side contributions to New Zealand’s GDP volatility decline
by Robert A Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson - 01/32 Saving and growth in an open economy
by Iris Claus & David Haugh & Grant Scobie & Jonas Tornquist - 01/31 An Econometric Analysis of a Production Function for New Zealand
by Kam Leong Szeto - 01/30 Reducing Maori and Pacific Inequalities
by The Treasury - 01/29 Poverty, Income Inequality and Health
by Ken Judge & Iain Paterson - 01/28 Greening the WTO's Disputes Settlement Understanding: Opportunities and Risks
by Jim Rose - 01/27 Sustainable Development: Environment and Economic Framework Integration
by Basil M. H. Sharp - 01/26 Three Steps Towards More Effective Development Assistance
by Jim Rose & Simon Hay - 01/25 New Zealand's Fiscal Policy Framework: Experience and Evolution
by John Janssen - 01/24 Budget Management That Counts: Recent Approaches to Budget and Fiscal Management in New Zealand
by Angela Barnes & Steve Leith - 01/23 Regulatory Issues in Biosecurity
by Chris Pinfield - 01/22 Brain Drain or Brain Exchange?
by Hayden Glass & Wai Kin Choy - 01/21 Understanding Changes in the Distribution of Household Incomes in New Zealand Between 1983-86 and 1995-98
by Dean Hyslop & Dave Maré - 01/20 Financing New Zealand Superannuation
by Brian McCulloch & Jane Frances - 01/19 Household Net Wealth: An International Comparison
by Iris Claus & Grant Scobie - 01/18 Household Saving Behaviour in New Zealand: A Cohort Analysis
by John K Gibson & Grant M Scobie - 01/17 Geography and the Inclusive Economy: A Regional Perspective
by The Treasury - 01/16 Human Capital and the Inclusive Economy
by The Treasury - 01/15 Towards an Inclusive Economy
by The Treasury - 01/14 The Effects of Class Size on the Long-Run Growth in Reading Abilities and Early Adult Outcomes in the Christchurch Health and Development Study
by Michael A Boozer & Tim Maloney - 01/12 Crown Financial Asset Management: Objectives and Practice
by Arthur Grimes - 01/11 A Structural VAR Approach to Estimating Budget Balance Targets
by Robert A Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Julie Tam - 01/09 Deprivation in New Zealand: Regional Patterns and Changes
by David C Mare & Peter Mawson & Jason Timmins - 01/08 Regional Labour Market Adjustment and the Movements of People: A Review
by David C Maré & Wai Kin Choy - 01/07 "Go West, Young Man, Go West!"?
by Peter Bushnell & Wai Kin Choy - 01/06 Review of Evidence on Broad Outcome of Public Sector Management Regime
by Murray Petrie & David Webber - 01/05 Outcomes Focussed Management in New Zealand - A Background Paper
by Chris Ussher & Andrew Kibblewhite - 01/04 Internal Mobility in New Zealand
by Suzi Kerr & Dave Maré & William Power & Jason Timmins - 01/03 Human Capital Policies and the Distribution of Income: A Framework for Analysis and Literature Review
by Daron Acemoglu - 01/02 New Zealand's Current Account Deficit: Analysis based on the Intertemporal Optimisation Approach
by Kunhong Kim & Viv B Hall & Robert A Buckle - 01/01 Regulatory Harmonisation - Issues for New Zealand
by Kevin Guerin
2000
- 01/13 Knowledge, Capabilities and Human Capital Formation in Economic Growth
by Paul A David (with the assistance of John Gabriel Goddard Lopez) - 01/10 Automatic Fiscal Stabilisers: Implications for New Zealand
by Julie Tam & Heather Kirkham - 00/26 Conserving Biodiversity - Institutions, Policies and Incentives
by Carl Binning - 00/25 Encouraging Private Biodiversity - Incentives for Biodiversity Conservation on Private Land
by Peter Clough - 00/24 Coughing Up for Bovine Tb Control - Economic Review of the Proposed National Pest Management Strategy for Bovine Tuberculosis
by Peter Clough & Chris Nixon - 00/23 Understanding the Growth in Welfare Benefit Receipt in Britain: A Review of the Evidence
by Robert Walker & Marilyn Howard & Sue Maguire & Rachel Youngs - 00/22 Economic Integration, Sovereignty and Identity: New Zealand in the Global Economy
by Megan Claridge & Sarah Box - 00/21 Facts About Economic Integration: How Integrated is New Zealand with the Rest of the World?
by Vicki Plater & Megan Claridge - 00/20 A Review of Options for Health and Disability Support Purchasing in New Zealand
by Nicholas Mays & Kenneth Hand - 00/19 New Zealand's Venture Capital Market
by Infometrics Ltd - 00/18 Secondary and Tertiary Education Attainment and Income Levels for Maori and Non-Maori Over Time
by Sholeh A Maani