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The Requirements for Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability

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Abstract

New Zealand, like many other countries, is experiencing a changing demographic profile from one dominated by young people during the 20th century to one where the population is more evenly distributed across age groups. This has implications for the economy and society, including the government's fiscal position in the future and for the sustainability of its spending programmes. This paper discusses the link between the government budget constraint and fiscal sustainability, how fiscal sustainability can be measured and why it’s important. We also examine the Treasury’s current approach to modelling the extent of fiscal adjustment required and options available to achieve this adjustment. The paper proposes criteria to evaluate potential policy changes to address these long-term fiscal challenges and suggests areas where further work could be worthwhile.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert A Buckle & Amy A Cruickshank, 2013. "The Requirements for Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/20, New Zealand Treasury.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:13/20
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    File URL: https://treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2013-07/twp13-20.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Ohnsorge, Franziska & Kose, M. Ayhan & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2020. "Benefits and Costs of Debt: The Dose Makes the Poison," CEPR Discussion Papers 14439, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    3. Dhritidyuti Bose & Renee Philip & Richard Sullivan, 2016. "Returning to Surplus: New Zealand's Post-GFC Fiscal Consolidation Experience," Treasury Working Paper Series 16/05, New Zealand Treasury.
    4. Yuanting Xia & Wenxiu Hu & Zhenxing Su, 2022. "Economic Policy Uncertainty, Social Financing Scale and Local Fiscal Sustainability: Evidence from Local Governments in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-19, June.
    5. Tapan Kumar Sarker, 2015. "The role of fiscal sustainability in enhancing sustainable economic growth in South Asia: the case of Bangladesh," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 22(1), pages 143-164, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-run fiscal sustainability; fiscal consolidation; public debt; public social expenditure; taxation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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