Growth in a Time of Debt
AbstractWe study economic growth and inflation at different levels of government and external debt. Our analysis is based on new data on forty-four countries spanning about two hundred years. The dataset incorporates over 3,700 annual observations covering a wide range of political systems, institutions, exchange rate arrangements, and historic circumstances. Our main findings are: First, the relationship between government debt and real GDP growth is weak for debt/GDP ratios below a threshold of 90 percent of GDP. Above 90 percent, median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more. We find that the threshold for public debt is similar in advanced and emerging economies. Second, emerging markets face lower thresholds for external debt (public and private) - which is usually denominated in a foreign currency. When external debt reaches 60 percent of GDP, annual growth declines by about two percent; for higher levels, growth rates are roughly cut in half. Third, there is no apparent contemporaneous link between inflation and public debt levels for the advanced countries as a group (some countries, such as the United States, have experienced higher inflation when debt/GDP is high.) The story is entirely different for emerging markets, where inflation rises sharply as debt increases.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 100 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Other versions of this item:
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," NBER Working Papers 15639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 7661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," Scholarly Articles 11129154, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009.
"The Aftermath of Financial Crises,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-72, May.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 7209, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 14656, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," Scholarly Articles 11129155, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Anastasia Guscina & Olivier Jeanne, 2006. "Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries," IMF Working Papers 06/98, International Monetary Fund.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003.
13932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Barro, Robert J., 1979.
"On the Determination of the Public Debt,"
3451400, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011.
"The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 319-350, 05.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- Reposting from my Forbes blog: the debate on Debt and GDP
by Richard Green in Richard's Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog on 2013-04-18 16:53:00
- Crecimiento econÃ³mico y deuda pÃºblica
by ? in Tiempo Económico on 2013-04-21 20:23:21
- Scene dalla vita di provincia: prefazione
by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2013-06-27 08:04:00
- Some thoughts on the Reinhart and Rogoff debate
by Gray in Pseudo-true News on 2013-04-24 05:06:23
- Brief notes before April 17th macro lecture
by Gray in Pseudo-true News on 2013-04-17 07:08:11
- Il nây a pas de seuil magique dans la relation entre croissance et endettement
by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-02-15 14:08:00
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
- Growth in a Time of Debt (AER 2010) in ReplicationWiki
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