Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Aftermath of Financial Crises

Contents:

Author Info

  • Reinhart, Carmen
  • Rogoff, Kenneth

Abstract

This paper examines the depth and duration of the slump that invariably follows severe financial crises, which tend to be protracted affairs. We find that asset market collapses are deep and prolonged. On a peak-to-trough basis, real housing price declines average 35 percent stretched out over six years, while equity price collapses average 55 percent over a downturn of about three and a half years. Not surprisingly, banking crises are associated with profound declines in output and employment. The unemployment rate rises an average of 7 percentage points over the down phase of the cycle, which lasts on average over four years. Output falls an average of over 9 percent, although the duration of the downturn is considerably shorter than for unemployment. The real value of government debt tends to explode, rising an average of 86 percent in the major post-World War II episodes. The main cause of debt explosions is usually not the widely cited costs of bailing out and recapitalizing the banking system. The collapse in tax revenues in the wake of deep and prolonged economic contractions is a critical factor in explaining the large budget deficits and increases in debt that follow the crisis. Our estimates of the rise in government debt are likely to be conservative, as these do not include increases in government guarantees, which also expand briskly during these episodes.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP7209.asp
Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7209.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7209

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords: duration; financial crisies; real estate; unemployment;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2012. "The Consequences of Banking Crises for Public Debt," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 289-307, December.
  2. Chen, Ying-Yeh & Yip, Paul S.F. & Lee, Carmen & Fan, Hsiang-Fang & Fu, King-Wa, 2010. "Economic fluctuations and suicide: A comparison of Taiwan and Hong Kong," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 71(12), pages 2083-2090, December.
  3. Kris James Mitchener & Joseph Mason, 2010. "'Blood and treasure': exiting the Great Depression and lessons for today," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 510-539, Autumn.
  4. Arnold, Bruce & Borio, Claudio & Ellis, Luci & Moshirian, Fariborz, 2012. "Systemic risk, macroprudential policy frameworks, monitoring financial systems and the evolution of capital adequacy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3125-3132.
  5. Kim Abildgren, 2012. "Financial structures and the real effects of credit-supply shocks in Denmark 1922-2011," European Review of Economic History, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 490-510, November.
  6. Paul Maarek & Elsa Orgiazzi, 2013. "Currency Crises and the Labour Share," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(319), pages 566-588, 07.
  7. Dolls, Mathias & Fuest, Clemens & Peichl, Andreas, 2012. "Automatic stabilizers and economic crisis: US vs. Europe," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 279-294.
  8. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Asset price volatility and government revenue," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2532-2543.
  9. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Modelling oil price and exchange rate co-movements," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 419-440.
  10. Maria Th. Kasselaki & Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2013. "Financial soundness indicators and financial crisis episodes," Working Papers 158, Bank of Greece.
  11. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn & Aysegül Sahin & Robert G. Valletta, 2012. "A Search and Matching Approach to Labor Markets: Did the Natural Rate of Unemployment Rise?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 3-26, Summer.
  12. Giulio Cainelli & Sandro Montresor & Giuseppe Vittucci Marzetti, 2010. "Production and financial linkages in inter-firm networks: structural variety, risk-sharing and resilience," Department of Economics Working Papers 1017, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  13. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2010. "Credit crises, money and contractions: An historical view," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 1-18, January.
  14. Pierella Paci & Ana Revenga & Bob Rijkers, 2012. "Coping with Crises: Policies to Protect Employment and Earnings," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 27(1), pages 106-141, February.
  15. Harald Hau & Sam Langfield & David Marques-Ibanez, 2012. "Bank ratings-What determines their quality?," Working Papers 12012, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
  16. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-78, May.
  17. Shachmurove, Yochanan, 2011. "A historical overview of financial crises in the United States," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 217-231.
  18. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2012. "The impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: An empirical investigation for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 1392-1405.
  19. repec:dgr:uvatin:2011071 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Del Giovane, Paolo & Eramo, Ginette & Nobili, Andrea, 2011. "Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: A survey-based analysis for Italy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2719-2732, October.
  21. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2008. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," Scholarly Articles 11129156, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  22. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2012. "Fiscal policy and asset price volatility," Empirica, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 123-156, February.
  23. Bernal-Verdugo, Lorenzo E. & Furceri, Davide & Guillaume, Dominique, 2013. "Banking crises, labor reforms, and unemployment," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1202-1219.
  24. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Fiscal policy and financial market movements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 231-251, January.
  25. Christopher J. Erceg & Jesper Lindé, 2012. "Fiscal consolidation in a currency union: spending cuts vs. tax hikes," International Finance Discussion Papers 1063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  26. Giulio Cainelli & Sandro Montresor & Giuseppe Vittucci Marzetti, 2012. "Erratum to: Production and financial linkages in inter-firm networks: structural variety, risk-sharing and resilience," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 1121-1121, November.
  27. Franklin Allen & Elena Carletti, 2010. "An Overview of the Crisis: Causes, Consequences, and Solutions-super-," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 10(s1), pages 1-26.
  28. Magda E. Kandil & Hanan Morsy, 2010. "Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/123, International Monetary Fund.
  29. Horst Feldmann, 2011. "Financial system stress and unemployment in industrial countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 504-527, November.
  30. Stefan P.T. Groot & Jan L. Mohlmann & Harry Garretsen & Henri L.F. de Groot, 2011. "The Crisis Sensitivity of European Countries and Regions: Stylized Facts and Spatial Heterogeneity," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-071/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  31. Stijn Claessens & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2010. "Cross-country experiences and policy implications from the global financial crisis," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25, pages 267-293, 04.
  32. Shujie Yao & Jing Zhang, 2011. "On Economic Theory and Recovery of the Financial Crisis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34, pages 764-777, 05.
  33. Abildgren, Kim, 2012. "Financial structures and the real effects of credit-supply shocks in Denmark 1922-2011," Working Paper Series 1460, European Central Bank.
  34. Gries, Thomas & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2013. "Do banking crises cause terrorism?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 321-324.
  35. Elsas, Ralf & Hackethal, Andreas & Holzhäuser, Markus, 2010. "The anatomy of bank diversification," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1274-1287, June.
  36. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace," NBER Working Papers 14587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Yun Jeong Choi & Doyeon Kim & Taeyoon Sung, 2010. "Global Crisis, Exchange Rate Response, and Economic Performance: A Story of Two Countries in East Asia," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 25-42.
  38. Chollete, Lorán & de la Peña, Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2011. "International diversification: A copula approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 403-417, February.
  39. Levintal, Oren, 2013. "The real effects of banking shocks: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 556-578.
  40. Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri & Ricardo Sousa, 2013. "Discretionary Government Consumption, Private Domestic Demand, and Crisis Episodes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 79-100, February.
  41. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Fiscal adjustments and asset price changes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 206-223, June.
  42. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2011. "Global Banks and Crisis Transmission," 2011 Meeting Papers 1376, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  43. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. Bijapur, Mohan, 2012. "Do financial crises erode potential output? Evidence from OECD inflation responses," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 700-703.
  45. Cumperayot, Phornchanok & Kouwenberg, Roy, 2013. "Early warning systems for currency crises: A multivariate extreme value approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 151-171.
  46. Casper Ewijk, 2009. "Credit Crisis and Dutch Pension Funds: Who Bears the Shock?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 337-351, September.
  47. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2012. "The effects of financial crisis on fiscal positions," Working Papers 145, Bank of Greece.
  48. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Rudy Loo-Kung, 2005. "Relative Price Volatility Under Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 11492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.