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Fiscal consolidation in a currency union: spending cuts vs. tax hikes

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  • Christopher J. Erceg
  • Jesper Lindé

Abstract

This paper uses a two country DSGE model to examine the effects of tax-based versus expenditure-based fiscal consolidation in a currency union. We find three key results. First, given limited scope for monetary accommodation, tax-based consolidation tends to have smaller adverse effects on output than expenditure-based consolidation in the near-term, though is more costly in the longer-run. Second, a large expenditure-based consolidation may be counterproductive in the near-term if the zero lower bound is binding, reflecting that output losses rise at the margin. Third, a "mixed strategy" that combines a sharp but temporary rise in taxes with gradual spending cuts may be desirable in minimizing the output costs of fiscal consolidation.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 1063.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1063

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Cited by:
  1. Saroj Bhattarai & Jae Won Lee & Woong Yong Park, 2013. "Optimal monetary policy in a currency union with interest rate spreads," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 150, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 14656, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Javier Andrés & J.E. Boscá & Javier Ferri, 2014. "Instruments, rules and household debt: the effects of fiscal policy," Working Papers 1401, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
  4. Virkola, Tuomo, 2014. "Exchange Rate Regime, Fiscal Foresight and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy," ETLA Reports 20, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  5. Apostolis Philippopoulos & Petros Varthalitis & Vanghelis Vassilatos, 2013. "Optimal Fiscal Action in an Economy with Sovereign Premia and without Monetary Independence: An Application to Italy," CESifo Working Paper Series 4199, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Florina-Cristina Badarau & Florence Huart & Ibrahima Sangaré, 2013. "Indebtedness and macroeconomic imbalances in a monetary-union DSGE model," Working Papers hal-00996622, HAL.

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