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Sovereign Risk, Fiscal Policy, and Macroeconomic Stability

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  • Corsetti, Giancarlo
  • Kuester, Keith
  • Meier, André
  • Müller, Gernot

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of strained government finances on macroeconomic stability and the transmission of fiscal policy. Using a variant of the model by Curdia and Woodford (2009), we study a 'sovereign risk channel' through which sovereign default risk raises funding costs in the private sector. If monetary policy is constrained, the sovereign risk channel exacerbates indeterminacy problems: private-sector beliefs of a weakening economy may become self-fulfilling. In addition, sovereign risk amplifies the effects of negative cyclical shocks. Under those conditions, fiscal retrenchment can help curtail the risk of macroeconomic instability and, in extreme cases, even stimulate economic activity.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8779.

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Date of creation: Jan 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8779

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Keywords: fiscal policy; monetary policy; risk premium; sovereign risk; zero lower bound;

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References

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  1. Vincent Reinhart & Brian Sack, 2000. "The Economic Consequences of Disappearing Government Debt," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(2), pages 163-220.
  2. Mertens, Karel & Ravn, Morten O., 2010. "Fiscal Policy in an Expectations Driven Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 7931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Patricio Valenzuela, 2007. "The Determinants of Corporate Risk in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 07/228, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2008. "Credit frictions and optimal monetary policy," Working Paper Research 146, National Bank of Belgium.
  5. Ardagna, Silvia & Caselli, Francesco & Lane, Timothy, 2004. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Ana M. Aizcorbe & Arthur B. Kennickell & Kevin B. Moore, 2003. "Recent changes in U.S. family finances: evidence from the 1998 and 2001 Survey of Consumer Finances," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jan, pages 1-32.
  7. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 607-635, June.
  8. Ugo Panizza & Federico Sturzenegger & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2009. "The Economics and Law of Sovereign Debt and Default," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 651-98, September.
  9. Andreas Schabert & Sweder J.G. van Wijnbergen, 2011. "Sovereign Default and the Stability of Inflation Targeting Regimes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-064/2/ DSF20, Tinbergen Institute.
  10. Huixin Bi & Eric M. Leeper, 2010. "Sovereign Debt Risk Premia and Fiscal Policy in Sweden," NBER Working Papers 15810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. L’austérité plus que toujours en question
    by jcbriquet in Ressources pour économistes on 2012-04-17 11:32:27
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Cited by:
  1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & André Meier & Gernot J. Mueller, 2013. "Sovereign Risk and Belief-Driven Fluctuations in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 13/227, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Gernot Müller & André Meier & Giancarlo Corsetti, 2012. "What Determines Government Spending Multipliers?," IMF Working Papers 12/150, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Gonzalo Caballero, 2013. "Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the Great Recession," Economies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(2), pages 15-18, September.
  4. Dimitris Papageorgiou, 2014. "BoGGEM: a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for policy simulations," Working Papers 182, Bank of Greece.
  5. Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Financial sector-output dynamics in the euro area: Non-linearities reconsidered," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-068 [rev.], ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  6. Saleem Bahaj, 2014. "Systemic Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Implications in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 1406, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  7. Beetsma, Roel & Mavromatis, Konstantinos, 2012. "An Analysis of Eurobonds," CEPR Discussion Papers 9244, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Huixin Bi & Wenyi Shen & Shu-Chun S. Yang, 2014. "Fiscal Limits, External Debt, and Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 14/49, International Monetary Fund.

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