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The determinants of corporate risk in emerging markets: an option-adjusted spread analysis

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  • Eduardo A. Cavallo

    (Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department, USA)

  • Patricio Valenzuela

    (European University Institute, Economics Department, Italy)

Abstract

This study explores the determinants of corporate bond spreads in emerging markets economies. Using a largely unexploited data set, the paper finds that corporate bond spreads are determined by firm-specific variables, bond characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, country-specific sovereign risk, and global factors. A variance decomposition analysis shows that firm-level performance indicators account for the larger share of the variance. In addition, the paper finds that corporate spreads respond more acutely to sovereign and global risk increases rather than to decreases. This suggests two asymmetries prevalent in the data. The first is in line with the sovereign ceiling 'lite' hypothesis, which states that it appears from spreads data that sovereign risk remains a significant determinant of corporate risk although credit rating agencies have gradually moved away from a policy of never rating a corporate above the sovereign. The second is consistent with the popular notion that panics are common in emerging markets where investors are less informed and more prone to herding. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/ijfe.398
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 15 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 59-74

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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:15:y:2010:i:1:p:59-74

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Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/

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  1. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
  2. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  3. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2003. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance and Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why it Matters," NBER Working Papers 10036, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2002. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1945, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  5. Enrique G. Mendoza & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2000. "Capital-Markets Crises and Economic Collapse in Emerging Markets: An Informational-Frictions Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 59-64, May.
  6. Durbin, Erik & Ng, David T.C., 2002. "The Sovereign Ceiling and Emerging Market Corporate Bond Spreads," Working Papers 127286, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  7. Christopher F Baum & Mark E Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2002. "IVREG2: Stata module for extended instrumental variables/2SLS and GMM estimation," Statistical Software Components S425401, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 02 Jan 2014.
  8. Eduardo Borensztein & Patricio Valenzuela & Kevin Cowan, 2007. "Sovereign Ceilings "Lite"? the Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Corporate Ratings in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 07/75, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Marcel Peter & Martín Grandes, 2005. "How Important Is Sovereign Risk in Determining Corporate Default Premia? The Case of South Africa," IMF Working Papers 05/217, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Sanjeev Gupta & Carlos Mulas-Granados & Emanuele Baldacci, 2009. "How Effective is Fiscal Policy Response in Systemic Banking Crises?," IMF Working Papers 09/160, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2013. "Sovereign Risk, Fiscal Policy, and Macroeconomic Stability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages F99-F132, 02.
  3. Surach Tanboon & Suchot Piamchol & Tanawat Ruenbanterng & Paiboon Pongpaichet, 2009. "Impacts of Financial Factors on Thailand's Business Cycle Fluctuations," Working Papers 2009-01, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.
  4. Ricardo Correa & Kuan-Hui Lee & Horacio Sapriza & Gustavo Suarez, 2012. "Sovereign credit risk, banks' government support, and bank stock returns around the world," International Finance Discussion Papers 1069, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Aysun Uluc, 2011. "An Alternative Method for Measuring Financial Frictions," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-31, April.
  6. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & André Meier & Gernot J. Mueller, 2013. "Sovereign Risk and Belief-Driven Fluctuations in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 13/227, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Giovanni Majnoni & Andrew Powell, 2011. "On Endogenous Risk, the Amplification Effects of Financial Systems and Macro Prudential Policies," Research Department Publications 4726, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  8. Patricio Valenzuela, 2013. "Rollover risk and corporate bond spreads," Documentos de Trabajo 300, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  9. Sanjeev Gupta & Amine Mati & Emanuele Baldacci, 2008. "Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 08/259, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & Andre Meier & Gernot J. Muller, 2011. "Soverign risk and the effects of fiscal retrenchment in deep recessions," Working Papers 11-43, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  11. Ağca, Şenay & Celasun, Oya, 2012. "Sovereign debt and corporate borrowing costs in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 198-208.
  12. Uluc Aysun & Ryan Brady & Adam Honig, 2009. "Financial Frictions and Monetary Transmission Strength: A Cross-Country Analysis," Working papers 2009-24, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2010.
  13. Eduardo Borensztein & Kevin Cowan & Patricio Valenzuela, 2013. "Sovereign Ceilings “Lite”? The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Corporate Ratings," Documentos de Trabajo 299, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  14. Uluc Aysun & Ryan Brady & Adam Honig, 2011. "Financial Frictions and the Credit Channel of Monetary Transmission," Working Papers 2011-03, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
  15. Cavallo, Eduardo & Daude, Christian, 2011. "Public investment in developing countries: A blessing or a curse?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 65-81, March.
  16. Jorgensen, Ole Hagen & Apostolou, Apostolos, 2013. "Brazil's bank spread in international context : from macro to micro drivers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6611, The World Bank.

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