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Generalizing the Taylor principle

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Author Info
Troy Davig
Eric M. Leeper

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Abstract

Recurring change in a monetary policy function that maps endogenous variables into policy choices alters both the nature and the efficacy of the Taylor principle---the proposition that central banks can stabilize the macroeconomy by raising their interest rate instrument more than one-for-one in response to higher inflation. A monetary policy process is a set of policy rules and a probability distribution over the rules. We derive restrictions on that process that satisfy a long-run Taylor principle and deliver unique equilibria in two standard models. A process can satisfy the Taylor principle in the long run, but deviate from it in the short run. The paper examines three empirically plausible processes to show that predictions of conventional models are sensitive to even small deviations from the assumption of constant-parameter policy rules.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its series Research Working Paper with number RWP 05-13.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp05-13

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Keywords: Taylor's rule ; Monetary policy ; Keynesian economics;

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  24. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Working Paper 2003-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  32. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2006. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Regime Change," NBER Working Papers 12405, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  33. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March. [Downloadable!]
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  34. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  36. Adolfson, Malin & Las?En, Stefan & Lind?, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2008. "Empirical Properties Of Closed- And Open-Economy Dsge Models Of The Euro Area," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(S1), pages 2-19, April. [Downloadable!]
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  38. Boivin, Jean & Giannoni, Marc, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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