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Understanding the New Keynesian model when monetary policy switches regimes

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  • Roger E.A. Farmer
  • Daniel F. Waggoner
  • Tao Zha

Abstract

This paper studies a New Keynesian model in which monetary policy may switch between regimes. We derive sufficient conditions for indeterminacy that are easy to implement and we show that the necessary and sufficient condition for determinacy, provided by Davig and Leeper, is necessary but not sufficient. More importantly, we use a two-regime model to show that indeterminacy in a passive regime may spill over to an active regime no matter how active the latter regime is. As a result, a passive monetary policy is more damaging than has been previously thought. Our results imply that the propagation of shocks in an active regime, such as that of the Federal Reserve in the post-1982 period, may be substantially affected by the possibility of a return to a passive regime of the kind that was followed in the 1960s and 1970s.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2007-12.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2007-12

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  1. Roger E.A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007. "Indeterminacy in a forward-looking regime-switching model," Working Paper 2006-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Why the Federal Reserve Should Adopt Inflation Targeting," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 117-127, 03.
  3. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Modest policy interventions," Working Paper 2002-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  4. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
  5. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2005. "Generalizing the Taylor principle," Research Working Paper RWP 05-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  6. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 2003. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-30, February.
  8. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  9. Svensson, Lars E O & Williams, Noah, 2007. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6331, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2003. "Computing sunspot equilibria in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 273-285, November.
  11. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2004. "Were there regime switches in U.S. monetary policy?," Working Paper 2004-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  12. Cooley, Thomas F & LeRoy, Stephen F & Raymon, Neil, 1984. "Econometric Policy Evaluation: Note," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 467-70, June.
  13. Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "Learning and Monetary Policy Shifts," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 392-419, April.
  14. Benjamin M. Friedman, 2004. "Why the Federal Reserve Should Not Adopt Inflation Targeting," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 129-136, 03.
  15. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Svensson, Lars E O & Williams, Noah, 2007. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6331, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Vidakovic, Neven, 2014. "Exchange rate regime and household's choice of debt," MPRA Paper 54219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Pedro de Araujo & Roisin O’Sullivan & Nicole B. Simpson, 2013. "What Should be Taught in Intermediate Macroeconomics?," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 74-90, March.
  4. Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007. "Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts and the Great Moderation," Emory Economics 0712, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
  5. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2007. "Term Structure Transmission of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 07-30, Bank of Canada.
  6. Zheng Liu & Daniel Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2009. "Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts in Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 284-303, April.
  7. Marcelo Ferman, 2011. "Switching Monetary Policy Regimes and the Nominal Term Structure," FMG Discussion Papers dp678, Financial Markets Group.
  8. Adam Cagliarini & Mariano Kulish, 2013. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models with Predictable Structural Changes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 328-336, March.
  9. Roger E.A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008. "Generalizing the Taylor principle: comment," Working Paper 2008-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

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