Indeterminacy in a Forward Looking Regime Switching Model
AbstractThis paper is about the properties of Markov switching rational expectations (MSRE) models. We present a simple monetary policy model that switches between two regimes with known transition probabilities. The first regime, treated in isolation, has a unique determinate rational expectations equilibrium and the second contains a set of indeterminate sunspot equilibria. We show that the Markov switching model, which randomizes between these two regimes, may contain a continuum of indeterminate equilibria. We provide examples of stationary sunspot equilibria and bounded sunspot equilibria which exist even when the MSRE model satisfies a 'generalized Taylor principle'. Our result suggests that it may be more difficult to rule out non-fundamental equilibria in MRSE models than in the single regime case where the Taylor principle is known to guarantee local uniqueness.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5919.
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision:
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Other versions of this item:
- Roger E. A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2009. "Indeterminacy in a forward-looking regime switching model," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(1), pages 69-84.
- Roger E.A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007. "Indeterminacy in a forward-looking regime-switching model," Working Paper 2006-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Roger E. A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2006. "Indeterminacy in a Forward Looking Regime Switching Model," NBER Working Papers 12540, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
- E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
- E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-12-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2006-12-09 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2006-12-09 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2006-12-09 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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