Realised and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov-Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom
AbstractThis paper investigates underlying changes in the UK economy over the past thirtyfive years using a small open economy DSGE model. Using Bayesian analysis, we find UK monetary policy, nominal price rigidity and exogenous shocks, are all subject to regime shifting. A model incorporating these changes is used to estimate the realised monetary policy and derive the optimal monetary policy for the UK. This allows us to assess the effectiveness of the realised policy in terms of stabilising economic fluctuations, and, in turn, provide an indication of whether there is room for monetary authorities to further improve their policies.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) in its series SIRE Discussion Papers with number 2011-21.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Markov-switching; Bayesian analysis; DSGE models;
Other versions of this item:
- Xiaoshan Chen & Ronald Macdonald, 2012. "Realized and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov‐Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(6), pages 1091-1116, 09.
- Xiaoshan Chen & Ronald MacDonald, 2011. "Realised and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov-Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom," Working Papers 2011_04, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-06-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2012-06-05 (Central Banking)
- NEP-DGE-2012-06-05 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-MAC-2012-06-05 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2012-06-05 (Monetary Economics)
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- Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2013.
"How Optimal is US Monetary Policy?,"
Stirling Economics Discussion Papers
2013-05, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
- Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell & Chen, Xiaoshan, 2013. "How Optimal is US Monetary Policy?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-53, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Xiaoshan Chen & Tatiana Kirsanova & Campbell Leith, 2013. "How Optimal is US Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 2013_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- António Afonso & Priscilla Toffano, 2013.
"Fiscal regimes in the EU,"
Working Papers Department of Economics
2013/10, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
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- Marian Vavra, 2013. "Testing for linear and Markov switching DSGE models," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2013, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
- Caglayan, Mustafa & Jehan, Zainab & Mouratidis, Kostas, 2012. "Asymmetric monetary policy rules for open economies: Evidence from four countries," MPRA Paper 37401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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