Realised and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov-Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom
AbstractThis paper conducts a systematic investigation of parameter instability in a small open economy DSGE model of the UK economy over the past thirty-five years. Using Bayesian analysis, we find a number of Markov-switching versions of the model provide a better fit for the UK data than a model with time-invariant parameters. The Markov-switching DSGE model that has two independent Markov-chains - one governing the shifts in UK monetary policy and nominal price rigidity and one governing the standard deviations of shocks - is selected as the best fitting model. The preferred model is then used to evaluate and design monetary policy. For the latter, we use the Markov-Jump-Linear-Quadratic (MJLQ) model, as it incorporates abrupt changes in structural parameters into derivations of the optimal and arbitrary policy rules. It also reveals the entire forecasting distribution of the targeted variables. To our knowledge, this is the first paper that attempts to evaluate and design UK monetary policy based on an estimated open economy Markov-switching DSGE model.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 2011_04.
Date of creation: Jan 2011
Date of revision:
DSGE models; Markov-switching; Bayesian analysis;
Other versions of this item:
- Xiaoshan Chen & Ronald Macdonald, 2012. "Realized and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov‐Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(6), pages 1091-1116, 09.
- Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2011. "Realised and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov-Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-21, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-04-09 (Central Banking)
- NEP-DGE-2011-04-09 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-FOR-2011-04-09 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2011-04-09 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2011-04-09 (Monetary Economics)
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- Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell & Chen, Xiaoshan, 2013.
"How Optimal is US Monetary Policy?,"
SIRE Discussion Papers
2013-53, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2013. "How Optimal is US Monetary Policy?," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2013-05, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
- Xiaoshan Chen & Tatiana Kirsanova & Campbell Leith, 2013. "How Optimal is US Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 2013_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Marian Vavra, 2013. "Testing for linear and Markov switching DSGE models," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2013, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
- Caglayan, Mustafa & Jehan, Zainab & Mouratidis, Kostas, 2012. "Asymmetric monetary policy rules for open economies: Evidence from four countries," MPRA Paper 37401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- António Afonso & Priscilla Toffano, 2013.
"Fiscal regimes in the EU,"
Working Papers Department of Economics
2013/10, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Afonso, António & Toffano, Priscilla, 2013. "Fiscal regimes in the EU," Working Paper Series 1529, European Central Bank.
- António AFONSO & Priscilla TOFFANO, 2013. "Fiscal regimes in the EU," Center for Economic Studies - Discussion papers ces13.06, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën.
- Boris Blagov, 2013. "Financial crises and time- varying risk premia in a small open economy: a Markov-Switching DSGE model for Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2013-8, Bank of Estonia, revised 09 Dec 2013.
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