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Fortune or Virtue: Time-Variant Volatilities Versus Parameter Drifting in U.S. Data

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  • Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
  • Pablo Guerrón-Quintana
  • Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez

Abstract

This paper compares the role of stochastic volatility versus changes in monetary policy rules in accounting for the time-varying volatility of U.S. aggregate data. Of special interest to us is understanding the sources of the great moderation of business cycle fluctuations that the U.S. economy experienced between 1984 and 2007. To explore this issue, we build a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with both stochastic volatility and parameter drifting in the Taylor rule and we estimate it non-linearly using U.S. data and Bayesian methods. Methodologically, we show how to confront such a rich model with the data by exploiting the structure of the high-order approximation to the decision rules that characterize the equilibrium of the economy. Our main empirical findings are: 1) even after controlling for stochastic volatility (and there is a fair amount of it), there is overwhelming evidence of changes in monetary policy during the analyzed period; 2) however, these changes in monetary policy mattered little for the great moderation; 3) most of the great performance of the U.S. economy during the 1990s was a result of good shocks; and 4) the response of monetary policy to inflation under Burns, Miller, and Greenspan was similar, while it was much higher under Volcker.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15928.

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Date of creation: Apr 2010
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15928

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  1. S. Boragan Aruoba & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramirez, 2003. "Comparing solution methods for dynamic equilibrium economies," Working Paper 2003-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2006. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach," NBER Technical Working Papers 0321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard, 1994. "Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models," Economics Papers 3., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
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  5. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2006. "The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 12022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2005. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," NBER Working Papers 11874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2006. "Solving DSGE models with perturbation methods and a change of variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2509-2531, December.
  8. Fermanian, Jean-David & Salani , Bernard, 2004. "A Nonparametric Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(04), pages 701-734, August.
  9. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "Reading the Recent Monetary History of the U.S., 1959-2007," PIER Working Paper Archive 10-016, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  10. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2003. "Structural changes in the US economy: is there a role for monetary policy?," Economics Working Papers 918, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2008.
  11. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2007. "Documentation of the Research and Statistics Division’s estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy: 2006 version," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Martin Uribe & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2009. "Risk Matters: The Real E¤ects of Volatility Shocks," 2009 Meeting Papers 237, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. Peter J. Klenow & Benjamin A. Malin, 2010. "Microeconomic Evidence on Price-Setting," NBER Working Papers 15826, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Richard Rogerson & Johanna Wallenius, 2007. "Micro and Macro Elasticities in a Life Cycle Model With Taxes," NBER Working Papers 13017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Jordi Gali & Luca Gambetti, 2008. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," NBER Working Papers 14171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2005. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 92, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  18. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2009. "Understanding Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(5), pages 1849-1867, September.
  19. Roger E.A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," Working Paper 2008-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  20. Bianchi, Francesco, 2008. "Regime switches, Agents’ Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," MPRA Paper 24251, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Jan 2010.
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  22. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F Rubio-Ramírez, 2007. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," Levine's Bibliography 843644000000000057, UCLA Department of Economics.
  23. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nistico, 2011. "Second-Order Approximation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Risk," FMG Discussion Papers dp677, Financial Markets Group.
  2. Lieven Baele & et al., 2012. "Macroeconomic Regimes," Faculty Working Papers 03/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  3. Dario Caldara & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Wen Yao, 2012. "Computing DSGE Models with Recursive Preferences and Stochastic Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 188-206, April.
  4. Pierre Guérin & Laurent Maurin & Matthias Mohr, 2011. "Trend-cycle decomposition of output and euro area inflation forecasts: a real-time approach based on model combination," Working Paper Series 1384, European Central Bank.
  5. Hatcher, Michael, 2011. "Time-varying volatility, precautionary saving and monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 440, Bank of England.

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