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Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?

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Author Info
Margaret M. McConnell
Gabriel Perez-Quiros

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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 90 (2000)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 1464-1476
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:90:y:2000:i:5:p:1464-1476

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Romer, Christina, 1986. "Spurious Volatility in Historical Unemployment Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 1-37, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Chang-Jin Kim & Christian J. Murray, 2002. "Permanent and transitory components of recessions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 163-183. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Erratum: The Likelihood ratio Test Under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 296., Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Durland, J Michael & McCurdy, Thomas H, 1994. "Duration-Dependent Transitions in a Markov Model of U.S. GNP Growth," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 279-88, July.
  8. Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-77, July.
  9. Filardo, Andrew J, 1994. "Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
  10. Andrew J. Filardo, 1997. "Cyclical implications of the declining manufacturing employment share," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 63-87. [Downloadable!]
  11. Donald S. Allen, 1995. "Changes in inventory management and the business cycle," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 17-26. [Downloadable!]
  12. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "Predicting U.S. recessions: financial variables as leading indicators," Research Paper 9609, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Eric Ghysels, 1993. "A time series model with periodic stochastic regime switching," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 84, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Watson, Mark W, 1994. "Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 24-46, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Boldin, Michael D, 1994. "Dating Turning Points in the Business Cycle," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(1), pages 97-131, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Hamilton, James D & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 1996. "What Do the Leading Indicators Lead?," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(1), pages 27-49, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Ramey, Valerie A. & West, Kenneth D., 1999. "Inventories," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 863-923 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    • Valerie A. Ramey & Kenneth D. West, 1997. "Inventories," NBER Working Papers 6315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1992. "Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 993-1005, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States," NBER Working Papers 1450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "The Likelihood Test Under Non-Standard Conditions: Testing the Markov Trend Model of GNP," RCER Working Papers 279, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  25. Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Approximate Asymptotic P-Values for Structural Change Tests," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 297., Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  26. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1988. "The Stabilization of the U.S. Economy Evidence From the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 2645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  27. Hess, Gregory D & Iwata, Shigeru, 1997. "Measuring and Comparing Business-Cycle Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(4), pages 432-44, October.
  28. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2006. "Impact of globalization on monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 265-305. [Downloadable!]
  2. Luca Benati and Paolo Surico, 2007. "Vector Autoregression Analysis and the Great Moderation," Discussion Papers 18, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bems, Rudolfs & Dedola, Luca & Smets, Frank, 2007. "US Imbalances: The Role of Technology and Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 6110, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2005. "A search for a structural Phillips curve," Staff Reports 203, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Morgan, Donald & Rime, Bertrand & Strahan, Philip E., 2004. "Bank Integration and State Business Cycles," SIFR Research Report Series 30, Swedish Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2007. "Total Factor Productivity and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Conditional Volatility," Working papers 2007-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf & Daniel E. Sichel, 2006. "Financial innovation and the Great Moderation: what do household data say?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov. [Downloadable!]
  8. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Lorena Saiz & Universidad de Murcia, 2006. "Do european business cycles look like one $\_?$," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 175, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2007. "Jump-and-Rest Effect of U.S. Business Cycles," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 11(4), pages 1480-1480. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Máximo Camacho & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós & Lorena Saiz, 2005. "Do european business cycles look like one?," Banco de España Working Papers 0518, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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