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Inventory Dynamics and Business Cycles: What Has Changed?

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Author Info
JONATHAN McCARTHY
EGON ZAKRAJSEK

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Abstract

To what extent can information-technology led improvements in inventory management account for the apparent moderation of economic fluctuations in the United States since the mid-1980s? We argue that changes in inventory dynamics played a reinforcing-rather than a leading-role in the reduction of output volatility. Since the mid-1980s, inventory dynamics have changed in a manner consistent with a faster resolution of inventory imbalances. However, these changes appear to be a consequence of changes in the response of industry-level sales and aggregate economic activity to monetary policy shocks. Our results suggest that it is the interaction between the changes in inventory behavior at the industry level and the macroeconomic environment-where the latter likely includes changes in the conduct of monetary policy and the responses of the economy to policy disturbances-rather than any single factor, that has contributed importantly to the observed decline in economic volatility. Copyright 2007 The Ohio State University.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.0022-2879.2007.00037.x
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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 39 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2-3 (03)
Pages: 591-613
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:39:y:2007:i:2-3:p:591-613

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro Levels," Staff Reports 334, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. F. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2005. "Interest sensitivity and volatility reductions: cross-section evidence," Working Papers 05-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  3. Louis J. Maccini & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Inventories, Fluctuations and Business Cycles. Working paper #4," NCER Working Paper Series 4, National Centre for Econometric Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. Marwan Chacra & Maral Kichian, 2004. "A Forecasting Model for Inventory Investments in Canada," Working Papers 04-39, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  5. Valerie A. Ramey & Daniel J. Vine, 2005. "Tracking the source of the decline in GDP volatility: an analysis of the automobile industry," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. F. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2005. "The roles of comovement and inventory investment in the reduction of output volatility," Working Papers 05-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  7. Adam Fein, 2004. "The Myth of Decline: A New Perspective on the Supply Chain and Changing Inventory-Sales Ratios," Working Papers 04-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau, revised Feb 2005. [Downloadable!]
  8. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2007. "The roles of comovement and inventory investment in the reduction of output volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov. [Downloadable!]
  9. J. Christina Wang, 2006. "Financial innovations, idiosyncratic risk, and the joint evolution of real and financial volatilities," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov. [Downloadable!]
  10. James A. Kahn, 2008. "Durable goods inventories and the Great Moderation," Staff Reports 325, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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