IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedawp/2006-19.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Indeterminacy in a forward-looking regime-switching model

Author

Listed:
  • Roger E. A. Farmer
  • Daniel F. Waggoner
  • Tao Zha

Abstract

This paper is about the properties of Markov-switching rational expectations (MSRE) models. We discuss possible solution concepts for MSRE models, distinguishing between stationary and bounded equilibria. For the case of models with one variable, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition for uniqueness of a bounded equilibrium, and we relate this condition to an alternative, the generalized Taylor principle suggested by Davig and Leeper. We provide examples of models with multiple bounded and multiple stationary equilibria which suggest that it may be more difficult to rule out nonfundamental equilibria in MSRE models than in the single-regime case where the Taylor principle is known to guarantee local uniqueness.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger E. A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007. "Indeterminacy in a forward-looking regime-switching model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2006-19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/documents/research/publications/wp/2006/wp0619a.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1998. "The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1015-1026, November.
    2. Noah Williams & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 108, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
    4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    5. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 607-635, June.
    6. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1999. "Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 57-126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2011. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2150-2166.
    8. Robert G. King, 2000. "The new IS-LM model : language, logic, and limits," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 45-103.
    9. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
    10. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies And The Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(4), pages 740-769, December.
    11. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
    12. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
    13. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Zheng & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2007. "Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts and the Great Moderation," Kiel Working Papers 1357, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2011. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2150-2166.
    3. Francesco Bianchi, 2013. "Regime Switches, Agents' Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 463-490.
    4. Baele, Lieven & Bekaert, Geert & Cho, Seonghoon & Inghelbrecht, Koen & Moreno, Antonio, 2015. "Macroeconomic regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 51-71.
    5. Xiaoshan Chen & Ronald Macdonald, 2012. "Realized and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov‐Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(6), pages 1091-1116, September.
    6. Mariano Kulish & Adrian Pagan, 2017. "Estimation and Solution of Models with Expectations and Structural Changes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 255-274, March.
    7. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2017. "How optimal is US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 96-111.
    8. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Khramov, Vadim & Nicolò, Giovanni, 2015. "Solving and estimating indeterminate DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 17-36.
    9. Lhuissier, Stéphane & Zabelina, Margarita, 2015. "On the stability of Calvo-style price-setting behavior," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 77-95.
    10. Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "U.S. Monetary Regimes and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1441-1478, October.
    11. Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "U.S. Monetary Regimes and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1441-1478, October.
    12. Andrew Foerster & Juan F. Rubio‐Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2016. "Perturbation methods for Markov‐switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(2), pages 637-669, July.
    13. Andrew T. Foerster, 2016. "Monetary Policy Regime Switches And Macroeconomic Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(1), pages 211-230, February.
    14. Seonghoon Cho, 2016. "Sufficient Conditions for Determinacy in a Class of Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 182-200, July.
    15. Hatcher, Michael, 2022. "Solving linear rational expectations models in the presence of structural change: Some extensions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    16. Smith, A. Lee, 2016. "When does the cost channel pose a challenge to inflation targeting central banks?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 471-494.
    17. Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1443-1474, October.
    18. Bennett T. McCallum, 2009. "Indeterminancy from inflation forecast targeting : problem or pseudo-problem?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 95(Win), pages 25-51.
    19. Choi, Jinho & Hur, Joonyoung, 2015. "An examination of macroeconomic fluctuations in Korea exploiting a Markov-switching DSGE approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 183-199.
    20. Thomas Lubik & Christian Matthes & Elmar Mertens, 2023. "Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 37-57, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2006-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rob Sarwark (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbatus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.