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Generalizing the Taylor Principle

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Author Info
Troy Davig () (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)
Eric M. Leeper () (Indiana University Bloomington)

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Abstract

The paper generalizes the Taylor principle—the proposition that central banks can stabilize the macroeconomy by raising their interest rate instrument more than one-for-one in response to higher inflation—to an environment in which reaction coefficients in the monetary policy rule evolve according to a Markov process. We derive a long-run Taylor principle that delivers unique bounded equilibria in two standard models. Policy can satisfy the Taylor principle in the long run,even while deviating from it substantially for brief periods or modestly for prolonged periods. Macroeconomic volatility can be higher in periods when the Taylorprinciple is not satisfied, not because of indeterminacy, but because monetary policy amplifies the impacts of fundamental shocks. Regime change alters the qualitative and quantitative predictions of a conventional new Keynesian model, yielding fresh interpretations of existing empirical work.

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Paper provided by Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington in its series Caepr Working Papers with number 2006-001.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2006
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Handle: RePEc:inu:caeprp:2006001

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Keywords: regime change indeterminacy monetary policy

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

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  1. John H. Cochrane, 2007. "Inflation Determination With Taylor Rules: A Critical Review," NBER Working Papers 13409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. John H. Cochrane, 2007. "Identification with Taylor Rules: A Critical Review," NBER Working Papers 13410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. William A. Branch & Troy Davig & Bruce McGough, 2007. "Expectational stability in regime-switching rational expectations models," Research Working Paper RWP 07-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  4. Fabián Gredig, 2007. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules and the Achievement of the Inflation Target: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 451, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  5. Daniel L. Thornton, 2007. "The unusual behavior of the federal funds and 10-year Treasury rates: a conundrum or Goodhart’s Law?," Working Papers 2007-039, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Roger E.A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007. "Understanding the New Keynesian model when monetary policy switches regimes," Working Paper 2007-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2007. "Do expectations matter? The Great Moderation revisited," Economics Working Papers 1084, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
  8. Farmer, Roger E A & Waggoner, Daniel F & Zha, Tao, 2006. "Indeterminacy in a Forward Looking Regime Switching Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 5919, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Alexander Mihailov, 2007. "Does Instrument Independence Matter under the Constrained Discretionof an Inflation Targeting Goal? Lessons from UK Taylor Rule Empirics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 95, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F Rubio-Ramírez, 2007. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," Levine's Bibliography 843644000000000057, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Josephine M. Smith & John B. Taylor, 2007. "The Long and the Short End of the Term Structure of Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 13635, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Svan Jari Stehn & David Vines, 2007. "Debt Stabilisation Bias And The Taylor Principle: Optimal Policy In A New Keynesian Model With Government Debt And Inflation Persistence," CAMA Working Papers 2007-22, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Svensson, Lars E O & Williams, Noah, 2007. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6331, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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