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Fluctuating Macro Policies and the Fiscal Theory

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Troy Davig
Eric M. Leeper

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Abstract

This paper estimates regime-switching rules for monetary policy and tax policy over the post-war period in the United States and imposes the estimated policy process on a calibrated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities. Decision rules are locally unique and produce a stationary long-run rational expectations equilibrium in which (lump-sum) tax shocks always affect output and inflation. Tax non-neutralities in the model arise solely through the mechanism articulated by the fiscal theory of the price level. The paper quantifies that mechanism and finds it to be important in U.S. data, reconciling a popular class of monetary models with the evidence that tax shocks have substantial impacts. Because long-run policy behavior determines existence and uniqueness of equilibrium, in a regime-switching environment more accurate qualitative inferences can be gleaned from full-sample information than by conditioning on policy regime.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11212.

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Date of creation: Mar 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11212

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 381-99.
  2. Michael Woodford, 1995. "Price Level Determinacy Without Control of a Monetary Aggregate," NBER Working Papers 5204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Campell Leith & Leopold von Thadden, 2006. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a New Keynesian model with capital accumulation and non-Ricardian consumers," Working Paper Series 649, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Troy Davig, 2007. "Phillips curve instability and optimal monetary policy," Research Working Paper RWP 07-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  3. Eric M. Leeper & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2006. "Dynamic Scoring: Alternative Financing Schemes," Caepr Working Papers 2006-022, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Troy Davig & Eric Leeper, 2006. "Endogenous monetary policy regime change," Research Working Paper RWP 06-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Hess Chung & Eric Leeper, 2007. "What Has Financed Government Debt?," Caepr Working Papers 2007-015, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. António Afonso, 2005. "Ricardian Fiscal Regimes in the European Union," Working Papers 2005/18, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Bartosz Mackowiak, 2006. "Macroeconomic Regime Switches and Speculative Attacks," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-025, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Andreas Thams, 2007. "Fiscal Policy Rules in Practice," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-016, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Luca Benati & Paolo Surico, 2006. "The Great Moderation and the ‘Bernanke Conjecture’," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 158, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Óscar J. Arce, 2005. "Reflections on fiscalist divergent price-paths," Banco de España Working Papers 0533, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  11. Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007. "Asymmetric expectation effects of regime shifts and the Great Moderation," Working Paper 2007-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Silika Prohl & Friedrich G. Schneider, 2006. "Sustainability of Public Debt and Budget Deficit: Panel cointegration analysis for the European Union Member countries," Economics working papers 2006-10, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria. [Downloadable!]
  13. Andreas Thams, 2006. "Fiscal Policy Effects in the European Union," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-016, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  14. Thams, Andreas, 2007. "The Relevance of the fiscal Theory of the Price Level revisited," MPRA Paper 1645, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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