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Has U.S. Monetary Policy Changed? Evidence from Drifting Coefficients and Real-Time Data

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Author Info
Boivin, Jean

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Abstract

Despite the large amount of empirical research on monetary policy rules, there is surprisingly little consensus on the nature or even the existence of changes in the conduct of U.S. monetary policy. Three issues appear central to this disagreement: (1) the specific type of changes in the policy coefficients, (2) the treatment of heteroskedasticity, and (3) the real-time nature of the data used. This paper addresses these issues in the context of forward-looking Taylor rules with drifting coefficients. The estimation is based on real-time data and accounts for the presence of heteroskedasticity in the policy shock. The findings suggest important but gradual changes in the rule coefficients, not adequately captured by the usual split-sample estimation. In contrast to Orphanides (2002, 2003), I find that the Fed's response to the real-time forecast of inflation was weak in the second half of the 1970s, perhaps not satisfying Taylor's principle as suggested by Clarida, Gali, and Gertler (2000). However, the response to inflation was strong before 1973 and gradually regained strength from the early 1980s onward. Moreover, as in Orphanides (2003), the Fed's response to real activity fell substantially and lastingly during the 1970s.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/mcb.2006.0065
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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 38 (2006)
Issue (Month): 5 (August)
Pages: 1149-1173
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:38:y:2006:i:5:p:1149-1173

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2007. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," NBER Working Papers 12930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Chang-jin Kim & N. Kundan Kishor & Charles R Nelson, 2006. "A Time-Varying Parameter Model for a Forward-Looking Monetary Policy Rule Based on Real-Time Data," Working Papers UWEC-2007-32, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Papers 2008-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 607-635, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Todd E. Clark, 2006. "Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 563-587. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2008. "Fiscal policy in real time," Working Paper Series 919, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Mandler, Martin, 2007. "The Taylor rule and interest rate uncertainty in the U.S. 1970-2006," MPRA Paper 2340, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2009. [Downloadable!]
  8. Gebhard Flaig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2007. "Does the Euro-zone Diverge? A Stress Indicator for Analyzing Trends and Cycles in Real GDP and Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  9. Sharon Kozicki & Peter Tinsley, 2005. "Minding the gap : central bank estimates of the unemployment natural rate," Research Working Paper RWP 05-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Ibrahim Chowdhury & Andreas Schabert, 2008. "Federal Reserve Policy viewed through a Money Supply Loss," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-023/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2009. "The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements," NBER Working Papers 15260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Timothy Cogley, 2005. "Changing Beliefs and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Cross-Equation Restrictions with Drifting Parameters," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 420-451, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Cinzia Alcidi & Alessandro Flamini & Andrea Fracasso, 2005. "``Taylored'' Rules. Does One Fit All?," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2007/06, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University, revised Mar 2007. [Downloadable!]
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