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Trend Inflation, Taylor Principle and Indeterminacy

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Author Info
Guido Ascari () (University of Pavia)
Tiziano Ropele () (Department of Economics, University of Milan-Bicocca)

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Abstract

In this paper, we show that low trend inflation strongly affects the dynamics of a standard Neo-keynesian model where monetary policy is described by a standard Taylor rule. In particular, we show that trend inflation: (i) enlarges the indeterminacy region in the parameter space, substantially altering the so-called Taylor principle; (ii) changes the dynamic responses of the economy. Furthermore, we generalize the basic analysis to different types of Taylor rules, inertial policy rules and indexation schemes. The key point is that, whatever the set up, the literature on Taylor rules cannot disregard average inflation in both theoretical and empirical analysis.

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File URL: http://dipeco.economia.unimib.it/repec/pdf/mibwpaper93.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 93.

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Length: 63 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2005
Date of revision: Oct 2005
Handle: RePEc:mib:wpaper:93

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Related research
Keywords: Sticky Prices Taylor Rules and Trend Inflation

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Robert Amano & Steve Ambler & Nooman Rebei, 2006. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Non-Zero Trend Inflation," Working Papers 06-34, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Liam Graham & Dennis J. Snower, 2007. "Hyperbolic Discounting and the Phillips Curve," Kiel Working Papers 1346, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Michael T. Kiley, 2007. "Is Moderate-to-High Inflation Inherently Unstable?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 173-201, June. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39, pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Guido Ascari, 2004. "Staggered prices and trend inflation: some nuisances," Macroeconomics 0404029, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1996. "Inflation targeting in a St. Louis model of the 21st century," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 83-107. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Andreas Hornstein & Alexander L. Wolman, 2005. "Trend inflation, firm-specific capital, and sticky prices," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 57-83. [Downloadable!]
  10. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2006. "Partial indexation, trend inflation, and the hybrid Phillips curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 42-50, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Liam Graham & Dennis J. Snower, 2004. "The real effects of money growth in dynamic general equilibrium," Working Paper Series 412, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Aubhik Khan & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 70(4), pages 825-860, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2005. "A search for a structural Phillips curve," Staff Reports 203, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum, and Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
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  18. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2005. "A reappraisal of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-32, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Ascari, Guido & Ropele, Tiziano, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy under low trend inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2568-2583, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2005. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," NBER Working Papers 11874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Marcela Meirelles Aurelio, 2006. "Targeting inflation and the fiscal balance : what is the optimal policy mix?," Research Working Paper RWP 06-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  3. Andrea Colciago, 2006. "Sticky wages and rule of thumb consumers," Working Papers 98, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2006. [Downloadable!]
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