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Testing for Indeterminacy:An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy

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Author Info
Thomas Lubik
Frank Schorfheide

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Abstract

This paper considers a prototypical monetary business cycle model for the U.S. economy, in which the equilibrium is undetermined if monetary policy is ‘inactive? In previous multivariate studies it has been common practice to restrict parameter estimates to values for which the equilibrium is unique. We show how the likelihood-based estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models can be extended to allow for indeterminacies and sunspot fluctuations. We propose a posterior odds test for the hypothesis that the data are best explained by parameters that imply determinacy. Our empirical results show that the Volcker-Greenspan policy regime is consistent with determinacy, whereas the pre-Volcker regime is not. We find that before 1979 non-fundamental sunspot shocks may have contributed significantly to inflation and interest rate volatility, but essentially did not affect output fluctuations.

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Paper provided by The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number 480.

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Date of creation: Jul 2002
Date of revision: Jun 2003
Handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:480

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Thomas A Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2001. "Computing Sunspots in Linear Rational Expectations Models," Economics Working Paper Archive 456, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised Jun 2002. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2005. "Comparing New Keynesian models of the business cycle: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1151-1166, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Jae-Young Kim, 1998. "Large Sample Properties of Posterior Densities, Bayesian Information Criterion and the Likelihood Principle in Nonstationary Time Series Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(2), pages 359-380, March.
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  29. Sbordone, Argia M., 2002. "Prices and unit labor costs: a new test of price stickiness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 265-292, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  30. Roger E.A. Farmer, 1994. "The Econometrics of Indeterminacy: An Applied Study," UCLA Economics Working Papers 720, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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