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Computing Sunspots in Linear Rational Expectations Models

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  • Thomas Lubik
  • Frank Schorfheide

Abstract

We provide computationally simple methods of analyzing the effects of fundamental and sunspot shocks in linear rational expectations models when the equilibrium is indeterminate Under indeterminacy sunspots can affect model dynamics through endogenous forecast errors that do not completely adjust to fundamental shocks alone Moreover the effect of fundamental shocks on forecast errors is not uniquely determined We characterize the full set of equilibria and show that some solution methods only generate subsets of all the rational expectations equilibria by imposing specific restrictions on the forecast errors However in most cases it is possible to recover the full set of equilibria from the output of these methods The solution algorithms are illustrated with a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic equilibrium model that can be solved analytically We show that under a passive interest-rate rule the response of output and inflation to an unanticipated interest rate cut is ambiguous: while output rises there are some equilibria in which inflation increases and other in which prices fall

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 with number 138.

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Date of creation: 01 Jul 2002
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf2:138

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Keywords: Sunspots; Indeterminacy; Rational Expectations; Computational Methods;

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References

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  1. Lubik, Thomas A. & Marzo, Massimiliano, 2007. "An inventory of simple monetary policy rules in a New Keynesian macroeconomic model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 15-36.
  2. Kaushik Mitra & James Bullard, . "Learning About Monetary Policy Rules," Discussion Papers 00/41, Department of Economics, University of York.
  3. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448 Elsevier.
  4. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  5. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1998. "The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1015-26, November.
  6. Weder, Mark, 1997. "Animal spirits, technology shocks and the business cycle," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,61, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  7. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
  8. Roberto Perli, 1995. "Indeterminacy, Home Production, and the Business Cycle: a Calibrated Analysis," Home Pages _042, University of Pennsylvania.
  9. Roger E.A. Farmer & Jang Ting Guo, 1992. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," UCLA Economics Working Papers 680, UCLA Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
  2. Pedro Pablo Álvarez Lois, 2003. "Capacity utilization and Monetary Policy," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0306, Banco de Espa�a.

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