A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan
AbstractThis paper estimates a small open economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for Pakistan using Bayesian simulation approach. Model setup is based on new Keynesian framework, characterized by nominal rigidity in prices with habit formation in household’s consumption. The core objective is to study whether an estimated small open economy DSGE model provides a realistic behavior about the structure Pakistan economy with fully articulated description of the monetary policy transmission mechanism vis-à-vis domestic firm’s price setting behavior. To do so, we analyze the impulse responses of key macro variables; domestic inflation, imported inflation, output, consumption, interest rate, exchange rate, term of trade to different structural/exogenous shocks. From several interesting results, few are; (a) high inflation in Pakistan do not hit domestic consumption significantly; (b) Central bank of Pakistan responds to high inflation by increasing the policy rate by 100 to 200 bps; (c) exchange rate appreciates in both the cases of high domestic and imported inflation; (d) tight monetary policy stance helps to curb domestic inflation as well as imported inflation but appreciates exchange rate significantly (f) pass through of exchange rate to domestic inflation is very low; finally parameter value of domestic price stickiness shows that around 24 percent domestic firms do not re-optimize their prices which implies averaged price contract is about two quarters.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 12977.
Date of creation: 06 Nov 2008
Date of revision: 17 Jan 2009
New-Keynesian economics; open economy DSGE models; nominal rigidities; monetary policy transmission mechanism; Bayesian Approach;
Other versions of this item:
- F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-01-31 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2009-01-31 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-CWA-2009-01-31 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-DGE-2009-01-31 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-MAC-2009-01-31 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-OPM-2009-01-31 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
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