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Evaluating An Estimated New Keynesian Small Open Economy Model

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Author Info
Adolfson, Malin () (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)
Laséen, Stefan () (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)
Lindé, Jesper () (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)
Villani, Mattias (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

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Abstract

This paper estimates and tests a new Keynesian small open economy model in the tradition of Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005) and Smets and Wouters (2003) using Bayesian estimation techniques on Swedish data. To account for the switch to an inflation targeting regime in 1993 we allow for a discrete break in the central bank’s instrument rule. A key equation in the model - the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition - is well known to be rejected empirically. Therefore we explore the consequences of modifying the UIP condition to allow for a negative correlation between the risk premium and the expected change in the nominal exchange rate. The results show that the modification increases the persistence and volatility in the real exchange rate and that this model has an empirical advantage compared with the standard UIP specification.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 203.

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Length: 59 pages
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2007
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Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0203

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Related research
Keywords: DSGE; VAR; VECM; Open economy; Bayesian inference;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Rene Lalonde & Dirk Muir, 2007. "The Bank of Canada's Version of the Global Economy Model (BoC-GEM)," Technical Reports 98, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Andrew T. Levin & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Does inflation targeting anchor long-run inflation expectations? evidence from long-term bond yields in the U.S., U.K., and Sweden," Working Paper Series 2006-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jaromír Beneš & Andrew Binning & Kirdan Lees, 2008. "Incorporating judgement with DSGE models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  4. J.E. Boscá & A. Díaz & R. Doménech & J. Ferri & E. Pérez & L. Puch, 2007. "A Rational Expectations Model for Simulation and Policy Evaluation of the Spanish Economy," Working Papers 0706, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia. [Downloadable!]
  5. Söderström, Ulf, 2008. "Re-Evaluating Swedish Membership in EMU: Evidence from an Estimated Model," Working Paper Series 227, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium," Working Paper Series 2006-46, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2008. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-30, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Frank Smets & Matthieu Darracq Pariès & Stéphane Adjemian, 2008. "A quantitative perspective on optimal monetary policy cooperation between the US and the euro area," Working Paper Series 884, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Frank Schorfheide & Keith Sill & Maxym Kryshko, 2008. "DSGE model-based forecasting of non-modelled variables," Working Papers 08-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Vasco Cúrdia & Daria Finocchiaro, 2007. "Monetary regime change and business cycles," Staff Reports 294, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  11. Caraiani, Petre, 2008. "An Analysis Of Domestic And External Shocks On Romanian Economy Using A Dsge Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(3), pages 100-114, September. [Downloadable!]
  12. Ulf Söderström, 2008. "Re-Evaluating Swedish Membership in EMU: Evidence from an Estimated Model," NBER Working Papers 14519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Mikael Carlsson & Oskar Nordström Skans, 2009. "Evaluating microfoundations for aggregate price rigidities - evidence from matched firm-level data on product prices and unit labor cost," Working Paper Series 1083, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Andersson, Michael K. & Karlsson, Gustav & Svensson, Josef, 2007. "The Riksbank’s Forecasting Performance," Working Paper Series 218, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  15. Malin Adolfson & Stefan Laseen & Jesper Linde & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy in an Operational Medium-Sized DSGE Model," NBER Working Papers 14092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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