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Optimal Monetary Policy in an Operational Medium-Sized DSGE Model

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Author Info

  • Adolfson, Malin

    ()
    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Laseén, Stefan

    ()
    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Lindé, Jesper

    ()
    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden, Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden and CEPR)

  • Svensson, Lars E.O.

    ()
    (Central Bank of Sweden, Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden, Princeton University, CEPR and NBER)

Abstract

We show how to construct optimal policy projections in Ramses, the Riksbank’s openeconomy medium-sized DSGE model for forecasting and policy analysis. Bayesian estimation of the parameters of the model indicates that they are relatively invariant to alternative policy assumptions and supports that the model may be regarded as structural in a stable low inflation environment. Past policy of the Riksbank until 2007:3 (the end of the sample used) is better explained as following a simple instrument rule than as optimal policy under commitment. We show and discuss the differences between policy projections for the estimated instrument rule and for optimal policy under commitment, under alternative definitions of the output gap, different initial values of the Lagrange multipliers representing policy in a timeless perspective, and different weights in the central-bank loss function.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 225.

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Length: 62 pages
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0225

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: 08 - 787 00 00
Fax: 08-21 05 31
Email:
Web page: http://www.riksbank.com/
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Keywords: Optimal monetary policy; instrument rules; optimal policy projections; openeconomy DSGE models;

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References

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  1. Malin Adolfson & Stefan Laseen & Jesper Lindé & Mattias Villani, 2005. "An estimated New Keynesian small open economy model," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
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