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Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE Model: An Application to the Euro Area

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Author Info
Frank Smets
Raf Wouters

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Abstract

In monetary policy strategies geared towards maintaining price stability, conditional and unconditional forecasts of inflation and output play an important role. In this article we illustrate how modern sticky-price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, estimated using Bayesian techniques, can become an additional useful tool in the forecasting kit of central banks. First, we show that the forecasting performance of such models compares well with a-theoretical vector autoregressions. Moreover, we illustrate how the posterior distribution of the model can be used to calculate the complete distribution of the forecast, as well as various inflation risk measures that have been proposed in the literature. Finally, the structural nature of the model allows computing forecasts conditional on a policy path. It also allows examination of the structural sources of the forecast errors and their implications for monetary policy. Using those tools, we analyse macroeconomic developments in the euro area since the start of EMU. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2004.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Common Market Studies.

Volume (Year): 42 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 841-867
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jcmkts:v:42:y:2004:i:4:p:841-867

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Working Paper 2003-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Working Paper Series 722, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Cogley, Timothy & Morozov, Sergei & Sargent, Thomas J., 2005. "Bayesian fan charts for U.K. inflation: Forecasting and sources of uncertainty in an evolving monetary system," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1893-1925, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Gabriel Fagan & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. G. Peersman, 2004. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/235, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
  9. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Policy Evaluation in Uncertain Economic Environments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2003-1), pages 235-322. [Downloadable!]
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  10. repec:att:wimass:1920315 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Lutz Kilian & Simone Manganelli, 2003. "The Central Bank as a risk manager: quantifying and forecasting fnflation risks," Working Paper Series 226, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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