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Bayesian New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS) Models: Modern Tools for Central Banks

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Author Info

  • Frank Smets

    (European Central Bank,)

  • Rafael Wouters

    (National Bank of Belgium,)

Abstract

This paper discusses the advantages of Bayesian New Neoclassical Synthesis models as tools for monetary policy analysis and forecasting. The combination of a sound, micro founded structure with a good probabilistic description of the observed data makes those models suitable for investigating the structural sources of business cycle fluctuations, for analysing optimal monetary policy responses to those developments and for making economic projections conditional on various policy assumptions. The paper gives two examples of such analysis. (JEL: E40, E50, C11) Copyright (c) 2005 The European Economic Association.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Journal of the European Economic Association.

Volume (Year): 3 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2-3 (04/05)
Pages: 422-433

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:jeurec:v:3:y:2005:i:2-3:p:422-433

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Cited by:
  1. Jordi Galí, 2010. "Are Central Banks' Projections Meaningful?," NBER Working Papers 16384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ozge Senay, 2007. "Interest Rate Rules and Welfare in Open Economies," CDMA Working Paper Series 200715, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  3. Frank Smets & Kai Christoffel & Günter Coenen & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2010. "DSGE models and their use at the ECB," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 51-65, March.
  4. Daly, Hounaida & Smida, Mounir, 2013. "Interaction entre politique monétaire et politique budgétaire:Cas de la Grèce
    [Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions : The Greece Case]
    ," MPRA Paper 45931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00270284 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Daly, Hounaida & Smida, Mounir, 2013. "La coordination des politiques monétaire et budgétaire: Aperçu théorique
    [Coordination of monetary and fiscal policies: Theoretical Overview]
    ," MPRA Paper 48020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Galí, Jordi, 2011. "Are central banks' projections meaningful?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 537-550.
  8. Grant Spencer & Ozer Karagedikli, 2006. "Modelling for monetary policy: the New Zealand experience," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 69, pages 8p., June.
  9. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00270284 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Michel Juillard & Florian Pelgrin, 2007. "Computing Optimal Policy in a Timeless-Perspective: An Application to a Small-Open Economy," Working Papers 07-32, Bank of Canada.
  11. Jordi Gali, 2008. "Are Central Banks' Projections Meaningful?," 2008 Meeting Papers 174, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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