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Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE Model: An Application to the Euro Area

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Cited by:

  1. Michal Rubaszek & Pawel Skrzypczynski, 2007. "Can a simple DSGE model outperform Professional Forecasters?," NBP Working Papers 43, Narodowy Bank Polski.
  2. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance versus Signals," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(4), pages 771-789, June.
  3. Günter Coenen & Anders Warne, 2014. "Risks to Price Stability, the Zero Lower Bound, and Forward Guidance: A Real-Time Assessment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 7-54, June.
  4. Lombardi, Marco J. & Sgherri, Silvia, 2007. "(Un)naturally low? Sequential Monte Carlo tracking of the US natural interest rate," Working Paper Series 794, European Central Bank.
  5. Gupta, Abhishek, 2010. "A Forecasting Metric for Evaluating DSGE Models for Policy Analysis," MPRA Paper 26718, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Gonzalo Fernández-de-Córdoba & José Torres, 2011. "Forecasting the Spanish economy with an augmented VAR–DSGE model," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 379-399, September.
  7. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013. "Forecasting and Policy Making," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 239-325, Elsevier.
  8. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Matheron, J. & Fève, P., 2007. "DSGE models and their importance to central banks," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 09, pages 25-46, Autumn.
  9. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2008. "The new area-wide model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 944, European Central Bank.
  10. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "A DSGE-VAR for the Euro Area," 2004 Meeting Papers 43, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Bekiros Stelios & Paccagnini Alessia, 2015. "Estimating point and density forecasts for the US economy with a factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 107-136, April.
  12. Basto, R. & Gomes, S. & Lima, D., 2019. "Exploring the implications of different loan-to-value macroprudential policy designs," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 66-83.
  13. Poghosyan, K., 2012. "Structural and reduced-form modeling and forecasting with application to Armenia," Other publications TiSEM ad1a24c3-15e6-4f04-b338-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  14. Maik H. Wolters, 2015. "Evaluating Point and Density Forecasts of DSGE Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 74-96, January.
  15. Cristea, R. G., 2020. "Can Alternative Data Improve the Accuracy of Dynamic Factor Model Nowcasts?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20108, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  16. Wolters, Maik H., 2011. "Forecasting under Model Uncertainty," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48723, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  17. Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Elvira Takli, 2013. "Comparison of simple sum and Divisia monetary aggregates in GDP forecasting: a support vector machines approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1101-1115.
  18. Chang, Chia-ling & Chen, Shu-heng, 2011. "Interactions in DSGE models: The Boltzmann-Gibbs machine and social networks approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-25, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  19. Ozge Senay, 2008. "Interest Rate Rules And Welfare In Open Economies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(3), pages 300-329, July.
  20. Alexandros P. Bechlioulis & Sophocles N. Brissimis, 2021. "Are household consumption decisions affected by past due unsecured debt? Theory and evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 3040-3053, April.
  21. Reicher, Christopher Phillip, 2009. "What can a New Keynesian labor matching model match?," Kiel Working Papers 1496, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  22. Roberto Duncan & Enrique Martínez‐García, 2023. "Forecasting inflation in open economies: What can a NOEM model do?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 481-513, April.
  23. Pär Österholm, 2009. "Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(2), pages 387-415, June.
  24. Fabio Milani, 2006. "A Bayesian DSGE Model with Infinite-Horizon Learning: Do "Mechanical" Sources of Persistence Become Superfluous?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September.
  25. Welz, Peter, 2006. "Assessing predetermined expectations in the standard sticky-price model: a Bayesian approach," Working Paper Series 621, European Central Bank.
  26. Volker Wieland & Maik Wolters, 2011. "The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the US economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 247-292, June.
  27. Sergey Ivashchenko, 2014. "Forecasting in a Non-Linear DSGE Model," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series 2014/02, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics.
  28. Frank Smets & Kai Christoffel & Günter Coenen & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2010. "DSGE models and their use at the ECB," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 51-65, March.
  29. Cacciatore, Matteo & Duval, Romain & Fiori, Giuseppe & Ghironi, Fabio, 2016. "Market reforms in the time of imbalance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 69-93.
  30. repec:zbw:rwirep:0301 is not listed on IDEAS
  31. Viktors Ajevskis & Kristine Vitola, 2011. "Fixed Exchange Rate Versus Inflation Targeting: Evidence from DSGE Modelling," Working Papers 2011/02, Latvijas Banka.
  32. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2005. "Bayesian New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS) Models: Modern Tools for Central Banks," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 422-433, 04/05.
  33. Stelios D. Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2016. "Policy‐Oriented Macroeconomic Forecasting with Hybrid DGSE and Time‐Varying Parameter VAR Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 613-632, November.
  34. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2008. "Evaluating an estimated new Keynesian small open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2690-2721, August.
  35. Milani, Fabio, 2008. "Learning, monetary policy rules, and macroeconomic stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3148-3165, October.
  36. Guangling (dave Liu & Rangan Gupta, 2007. "A Small‐Scale Dsge Model For Forecasting The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(2), pages 179-193, June.
  37. David Alaminos & Ana León-Gómez & José Ramón Sánchez-Serrano, 2020. "A DSGE-VAR Analysis for Tourism Development and Sustainable Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-22, May.
  38. Monti, Francesca, 2015. "Can a data-rich environment help identify the sources of model misspecification?," Bank of England working papers 527, Bank of England.
  39. Carla Soares, 2008. "Impact on Welfare of Country Heterogeneity in a Currency Union," Working Papers w200814, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  40. Ivashchenko, S., 2013. "Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model with Banks and Endogenous Defaults of Firms," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 27-50.
  41. Hongru Zhang & Yang Yang, 2019. "Prescribing for the tourism-induced Dutch disease: A DSGE analysis of subsidy policies," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(6), pages 942-963, September.
  42. Schorfheide, Frank & Sill, Keith & Kryshko, Maxym, 2010. "DSGE model-based forecasting of non-modelled variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 348-373, April.
  43. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Peter Welz, 2008. "Robust Inflation-Targeting Rules and the Gains from International Policy Coordination," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0208, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  44. Kristoffer P. Nimark, 2009. "A Structural Model of Australia as a Small Open Economy," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 42(1), pages 24-41, March.
  45. Ali Dib & Mohamed Gammoudi & Kevin Moran, 2008. "Forecasting Canadian time series with the New Keynesian model," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(1), pages 138-165, February.
  46. Balfoussia, Hiona & Brissimis, Sophocles & Delis, Manthos D, 2011. "The theoretical framework of monetary policy revisited," MPRA Paper 32236, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  47. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2017. "Dealing with Misspecification in DSGE Models: A Survey," MPRA Paper 82914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  48. Kim, Kun Ho, 2011. "Density forecasting through disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 394-412, April.
  49. Feunou Bruno & Fontaine Jean-Sébastien & Jin Jianjian, 2021. "What model for the target rate," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(1), pages 1-23, February.
  50. Mattias Villani & Malin Adolfson & Jesper Linde, 2005. "Forecasting Performance of an Open Economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 32, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  51. Bahram Adrangi & Juan Nicolás D’Amico, 2023. "Equity Returns and the Output Shocks in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Framework," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-14, April.
  52. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2014. "Financial Frictions and Inflation Differentials in a Monetary Union," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(5), pages 549-595, September.
  53. Jan Filacek & Jakub Mateju, 2014. "Adverse Effects of Monetary Policy Signalling," Working Papers 2014/13, Czech National Bank.
  54. Siok Kun, Sek, 2009. "The impacts of economic structures on the performance of simple policy rules in a small open economy," MPRA Paper 25065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  55. Malin Adolfson & Stefan Laséen & Jesper Lindé & Mattias Villani, 2005. "Are Constant Interest Rate Forecasts Modest Policy Interventions? Evidence from a Dynamic Open‐Economy Model," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 509-544, December.
  56. Emil Stavrev & Helge Berger, 2012. "The information content of money in forecasting euro area inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(31), pages 4055-4072, November.
  57. Bekiros, Stelios D. & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2014. "Bayesian forecasting with small and medium scale factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 298-323.
  58. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Are Constant Interest Rate Forecasts Modest Interventions? Evidence from an Estimated Open Economy DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 180, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  59. Michael R. Greenberg & Michael Lahr & Nancy Mantell, 2007. "Understanding the Economic Costs and Benefits of Catastrophes and Their Aftermath: A Review and Suggestions for the U.S. Federal Government," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(1), pages 83-96, February.
  60. Hugo Gerard & Kristoffer Nimark, 2008. "Combining multivariate density forecasts using predictive criteria," Economics Working Papers 1117, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2008.
  61. Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Stocker,Marc & Some,Modeste Y., 2016. "Quantifying uncertainties in global growth forecasts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7770, The World Bank.
  62. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," Post-Print halshs-00511979, HAL.
  63. Franz Hamann Salcedo & Juan Manuel Julio & Paulina Restrepo & Alvaro Riascos, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in a Samll Open Economy: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 308, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  64. Ippei Fujiwara & Naoko Hara & Naohisa Hirakata & Shinichiro Watanabe & Kentaro Yoshimura, 2005. "Monetary Policy in a Liquidity Trap: What Have We Learned, and to What End?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 471-508, December.
  65. Sergey Ivashchenko, 2014. "Forecasting in a Non-Linear DSGE Model," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series Ec-02/14, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics.
  66. Fritz Breuss & Katrin Rabitsch, 2009. "An estimated two-country DSGE model of Austria and the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 123-158, February.
  67. Rubaszek, Michal & Skrzypczynski, Pawel, 2008. "On the forecasting performance of a small-scale DSGE model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 498-512.
  68. Milani, Fabio, 2007. "Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2065-2082, October.
  69. Ulrich Gunter, 2019. "Estimating and forecasting with a two-country DSGE model of the Euro area and the USA: the merits of diverging interest-rate rules," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1283-1323, April.
  70. Malin Adolfson & Jesper Linde & Mattias Villani, 2007. "Forecasting Performance of an Open Economy DSGE Model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 289-328.
  71. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Oyekola, Olayinka, 2015. "Energy Business Cycles," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/19, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  72. Costantini, Mauro & Gunter, Ulrich & Kunst, Robert M., 2012. "Forecast Combination Based on Multiple Encompassing Tests in a Macroeconomic DSGE-VAR System," Economics Series 292, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  73. Mu-Chun Wang, 2009. "Comparing the DSGE model with the factor model: an out-of-sample forecasting experiment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 167-182.
  74. Mauro Costantini & Ulrich Gunter & Robert M. Kunst, 2017. "Forecast Combinations in a DSGE‐VAR Lab," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 305-324, April.
  75. Francesca Monti, 2008. "Forecast with judgment and models," Working Paper Research 153, National Bank of Belgium.
  76. Sun Xiaojin & Tsang Kwok Ping, 2019. "What cycles? Data detrending in DSGE models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 1-23, June.
  77. Guangling 'Dave' Liu & Rangan Gupta & Eric Schaling, 2009. "A New-Keynesian DSGE model for forecasting the South African economy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 387-404.
  78. Francesca Monti, 2010. "Combining Judgment and Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1641-1662, December.
  79. Stelios Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "On the predictability of time-varying VAR and DSGE models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 635-664, August.
  80. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2008. "Oil shocks and endogenous markups: results from an estimated euro area DSGE model," Working Paper Series 860, European Central Bank.
  81. Alessia Paccagnini, 2012. "Comparing Hybrid DSGE Models," Working Papers 228, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2012.
  82. Kitlinski, Tobias & Schmidt, Torsten, 2011. "The Forecasting Performance of an Estimated Medium Run Model," Ruhr Economic Papers 301, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  83. Nigel Grimwade & David G. Mayes & Jiao Wang, 2011. "Estimating the Effects of Integration," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume III, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  84. Paul Hubert, 2011. "Do central banks forecast influence private agents ? Forecasting performance vs. signals," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-20, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  85. Dr. Nicolas Alexis Cuche-Curti & Harris Dellas & Jean-Marc Natal, 2009. "A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for Switzerland," Economic Studies 2009-05, Swiss National Bank.
  86. Pavasuthipaisit, Robert, 2010. "Should inflation-targeting central banks respond to exchange rate movements?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 460-485, April.
  87. Wing Leong Teo, 2009. "Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model Of The Taiwanese Economy," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 194-231, May.
  88. Kim, Kun Ho, 2011. "Density forecasting through disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 394-412.
  89. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Oyekola, Olayinka, 2015. "Oil Prices and the Dynamics of Output and Real Exchange Rate," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  90. Mr. Emil Stavrev & Mr. Helge Berger, 2008. "The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation," IMF Working Papers 2008/166, International Monetary Fund.
  91. Nandi, Aurodeep, 2019. "Fiscal deficit targeting alongside flexible inflation targeting: India’s fiscal policy transmission," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-18.
  92. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00511979, HAL.
  93. Adem Feto & M. K. Jayamohan & Arnis Vilks, 2023. "Applicability and Accomplishments of DSGE Modeling: A Critical Review," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(2), pages 213-239, September.
  94. Dominique Guegan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "Alternative methods for forecasting GDP," Post-Print halshs-00505165, HAL.
  95. Sin, Hui Lok & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza, 2006. "Stochastic simulation of a DSGE model for Brazil," MPRA Paper 20853, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  96. Christoffel, Kai & Coenen, Gunter & Warne, Anders, 2007. "Conditional versus unconditional forecasting with the New Area-Wide Model of the euro area," MPRA Paper 76759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  97. Ivashchenko, S., 2013. "Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model with Banks and Endogenous Defaults of Firms," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 27-50.
  98. Marcelo Sánchez, 2011. "Oil shocks and endogenous markups: results from an estimated euro area DSGE model," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 247-273, September.
  99. Tobias Kitlinski & Torsten Schmidt, 2011. "The Forecasting Performance of an Estimated Medium Run Model," Ruhr Economic Papers 0301, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  100. Dilip Nachane, 2017. "Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Modelling :Theory And Practice," Working Papers id:11699, eSocialSciences.
  101. Alvarez-Lois, Pedro & Harrison, Richard & Piscitelli, Laura & Scott, Alasdair, 2008. "On the application and use of DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2428-2452, August.
  102. Valerio Scalone, 2015. "Estimating Non-Linear DSGEs with the Approximate Bayesian Computation: an application to the Zero Lower Bound," Working Papers 6/15, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
  103. David Alan Peel & Pantelis Promponas, 2016. "Forecasting the nominal exchange rate movements in a changing world. The case of the U.S. and the U.K," Working Papers 144439514, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  104. Fujiwara, Ippei & Hara, Naoko & Yoshimura, Kentaro, 2006. "Effectiveness of state-contingent monetary policy under a liquidity trap," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 364-379, September.
  105. Zimmermann, Tobias, 2007. "Reale Konjunkturzyklen, Effizienzlöhne und die Rolle von Ölpreisschocks: Eine theoretische und empirische Analyse für Deutschland," RWI Schriften, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, volume 81, number 81.
  106. Copaciu, Mihai & Nalban, Valeriu & Bulete, Cristian, 2015. "R.E.M. 2.0, An estimated DSGE model for Romania," Dynare Working Papers 48, CEPREMAP.
  107. Geert Langenus, 2006. "Fiscal sustainability indicators and policy design in the face of ageing," Working Paper Research 102, National Bank of Belgium.
  108. Arjan Lejour & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa & Paul Veenendaal, 2017. "Identifying hubs and spokes in global supply chains using redirected trade in value added," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 66-81, January.
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