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Assessing predetermined expectations in the standard sticky-price model: a Bayesian approach

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  • Welz, Peter

Abstract

This paper analyses the empirical performance of a New Keynesian stickyprice model with delayed effects of monetary impulses on inflation and output for the German pre-EMU economy. The model is augmented with rule-ofthumb behaviour in consumption and price setting. Using recently developed Bayesian estimation techniques, endogenous persistence is found to play a dominant role in consumption whereas forward-looking behaviour is greater for inflation. The model's dynamics following a monetary shock and a preference shock are comparable to those of an identified VAR model. JEL Classification: C51, E43, E52

Suggested Citation

  • Welz, Peter, 2006. "Assessing predetermined expectations in the standard sticky-price model: a Bayesian approach," Working Paper Series 621, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006621
    Note: 494827
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    Cited by:

    1. Mayer, Eric & Grimm, Oliver, 2008. "Countercyclical taxation and price dispersion," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 78, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    2. Wollmershäuser, Timo & Mayer, Eric & Hülsewig, Oliver, 2006. "Bank Behavior and the Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 71, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    3. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2007. "State-dependency and firm-level optimization: a contribution to Calvo price staggering," Working Paper Series 806, European Central Bank.
    4. Vitale, Paolo, 2006. "A Market Microstructure Analysis of Foreign Exchange Intervention," CEPR Discussion Papers 5468, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Henzel, Steffen & Hülsewig, Oliver & Mayer, Eric & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2009. "The price puzzle revisited: Can the cost channel explain a rise in inflation after a monetary policy shock?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 268-289, June.
    6. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2007. "Phillips-Curve Dynamics: Mark-Up Cyclicality, Effective Hours and Regime-Dependency," Kiel Working Papers 1359, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Mayer, Eric & Hülsewig, Oliver & Henzel, Steffen & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2006. "The Price Puzzle Revisited: Can the Cost Channel explain a Rise in Inflation after a Monetary Shock?," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 74, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    8. Kortelainen, Mika & Paloviita, Maritta & Viren, Matti, 2016. "How useful are measured expectations in estimation and simulation of a conventional small New Keynesian macro model?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 540-550.
    9. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michal & Kot, Adam, 2008. "The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?," MPRA Paper 10296, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Siok Kun, Sek, 2009. "The impacts of economic structures on the performance of simple policy rules in a small open economy," MPRA Paper 25065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Hülsewig, Oliver & Mayer, Eric & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2009. "Bank behavior, incomplete interest rate pass-through, and the cost channel of monetary policy transmission," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1310-1327, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bayesian estimation; DSGE-Model; identified VAR; predetermined expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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