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A Bayesian DSGE Model with Infinite-Horizon Learning: Do "Mechanical" Sources of Persistence Become Superfluous?

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Fabio Milani

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Abstract

This paper estimates a monetary DSGE model with learning introduced from the primitive assumptions. The model nests infinite-horizon learning and features, such as habit formation in consumption and inflation indexation, that are essential for the model fit under rational expectations. I estimate the DSGE model by Bayesian methods, obtaining estimates of the main learning parameter, the constant gain, jointly with the deep parameters of the economy. The results show that relaxing the assumption of rational expectations in favor of learning may render mechanical sources of persistence superfluous. In particular, learning appears to be a crucial determinant of inflation inertia.

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Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 2 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages:
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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2006:q:3:a:3

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005. "A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-3, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Feb 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C, 2005. "Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 4844, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Preston, Bruce, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," MPRA Paper 830, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2000-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2003. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," NBER Working Papers 9459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Adaptive Learning and Inflation Persistence," Working Papers 050607, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2004. "Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE Model: An Application to the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 4749, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "Bayesian analysis of DSGE models," Working Papers 06-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 9884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Bruce Preston, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(2), September. [Downloadable!]
  11. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Inflation Targeting Rules," NBER Working Papers 9939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "Monetary policy in an estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the Euro area," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
  13. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Raf Wouters & Frank Smets, 2005. "Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 161-183. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Learning, Monetary Policy Rules, and Macroeconomic Stability," Macroeconomics 0508019, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "Trend inflation and inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Staff Reports 270, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  2. John M. Roberts, 2007. "Learning, Sticky Inflation, and the Sacrifice Ratio," Kiel Working Papers 1365, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fabio Milani, 2006. "The Evolution of the Fed's Inflation Target in an Estimated Model under RE and Learning," Working Papers 060704, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bask, Mikael & Selander, Carina, 2007. "Robust Taylor rules in an open economy with heterogeneous expectations and least squares learning," Research Discussion Papers 6/2007, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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