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Incorporating judgement in fan charts

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Author Info
Pär Österholm

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Abstract

Within a decision-making group, such as the monetary-policy committee of a central bank, group members often hold differing views about the future of key economic variables. Such differences of opinion can be thought of as reflecting differing sets of judgement. This paper suggests modelling each agent's judgement as one scenario in a macroeconomic model. Each judgement set has a specific dynamic impact on the system, and accordingly, a particular predictive density - or fan chart - associated with it. A weighted linear combination of the predictive densities yields a final predictive density that correctly reflects the uncertainty perceived by the agents generating the forecast. In a model-based environment, this framework allows judgement to be incorporated into fan charts in a formalised manner.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2006-39.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2006-39

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Related research
Keywords: Economic forecasting ; Statistical methods ; Monetary policy;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Lars Svensson & Noah Williams, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," NBER Working Papers 11733, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Hamilton, James D & Herrera, Ana Maria, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 265-86, April.
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  5. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2004. "Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE model - an application to the euro area," Working Paper Series 389, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Ana Maria Herrera & James Hamilton, 2001. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2001-10, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Kenneth F. Wallis, 2005. "Combining Density and Interval Forecasts: A Modest Proposal," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 983-994, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Bernanke, Ben S & Gertler, Mark & Watson, Mark W, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 287-91, April.
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  13. Malin Adolfson & Stefan Laséen & Jesper Lindé & Mattias Villani, 2005. "Are Constant Interest Rate Forecasts Modest Policy Interventions? Evidence from a Dynamic Open-Economy Model," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 509-544, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lars O. Svensson & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005. "Optimal Policy Projections," NBER Working Papers 11392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Working Paper 2003-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  16. McNees, Stephen K., 1990. "The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 287-299, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. A Garratt & K Lee & M H Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2004. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconomics Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," ESE Discussion Papers 64, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ohlsson, Henry, 2007. "The legacy of the Swedish gift and inheritance tax, 1884–2004," Working Paper Series 2007:23, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Pär Österholm & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2007. "The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 07/176, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Blomquist, Sören & Christiansen, Vidar, 2007. "Public Provision of Private Goods and Nondistortionary Marginal Tax Rates," Working Paper Series 2007:7, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Liang, Che-Yuan, 2007. "Is There an Incumbency Advantage or a Cost of Ruling in Proportional Election Systems?," Working Paper Series 2007:28, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Alexius, Annika & Holmlund, Bertil, 2007. "Monetary Policy and Swedish Unemployment Fluctuations," Working Paper Series 2007:17, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Kjellberg, David & Post, Erik, 2007. "A Critical Look at Measures of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2007:14, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär, 2007. "The Rise and Fall of U.S. Inflation Persistence," Working Paper Series 2007:18, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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