Pooling of Forecasts
AbstractWe consider forecasting using a combination, when no model coincides with a non-constant data generation process (DGP). Practical experience suggests that combining forecasts adds value, and can even dominate the best individual device. We show why this can occur when forecasting models are differentially mis-specified, and is likely to occur when the DGP is subject to deterministic shifts. Moreover, averaging may then dominate over estimated weights in the combination. Finally, it cannot be proved that only non-encompassed devices should be retained in the combination. Empirical and Monte Carlo illustrations confirm the analysis.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford in its series Economics Papers with number 2002-W9.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2001
Date of revision:
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Web page: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/
Other versions of this item:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2002-05-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2002-05-03 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2002-05-03 (Econometric Time Series)
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