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Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: an exposition, extensions, and illustration Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Neil R. Ericsson
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Parameter constancy and a model's mean square forecast error are two commonly used measures of forecast performance. By explicit consideration of the information sets involved, this paper clarifies the roles that each plays in analyzing a model's forecast accuracy. Both criteria are necessary for "good" forecast performance, but neither (nor both) is sufficient. Further, these criteria fit into a general taxonomy of model evaluation statistics, and the information set corresponding to a model's mean square forecast error leads to a new test statistic, forecast-model encompassing. Two models of U.K. money demand illustrate the various measures of forecast accuracy.
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Keywords: Forecasting ; Other versions of this item:
Article Ericsson, Neil R., 1992.
"Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: An exposition, extensions, and illustration ,"
Journal of Policy Modeling ,
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references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
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2002-W9, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
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"The fragility of sensitivity analysis: an encompassing perspective ,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
959, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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Other versions: Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Hong-Anh Tran, 1993.
"Cointegration, seasonality, encompassing, and the demand for money in the United Kingdom ,"
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457, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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Carmine Trecroci & Juan Luis Vega-Croissier, 2000.
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"The UK Demand for Broad Money over the Long run ,"
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W29, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
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repec:att:wimass:19199936 is not listed on IDEAS
Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005.
"General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography ,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
[Downloadable!]
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