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Comments on the evaluation of policy models

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  • Clive W. J. Granger
  • Melinda Deutsch

Abstract

This paper examines the evaluation of models claimed to be relevant for policy making purposes. A number of tests are proposed to determine the usefulness of such models in the policy making process. These tests are applied to three empirical examples.

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File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1991/413/ifdp413.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 413.

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Date of creation: 1991
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:413

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Related research

Keywords: Econometric models ; Forecasting;

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References

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  1. Robert J. Barro & Mark Rush, 1980. "Unanticipated Money and Economic Activity," NBER Chapters, in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 23-73 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1990. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," International Finance Discussion Papers 383, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Causality, cointegration, and control," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 551-559.
  4. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1990. "International Nominal Targeting (INT): A Proposal for Overcoming Obstacles to Policy Coordination," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4rn0t6wv, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  5. Dutkowsky, Donald H, 1984. " The Demand for Borrowed Reserves: A Switching Regression Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(2), pages 407-24, June.
  6. Kevin D. Hoover & Steven M. Sheffrin, 1990. "Causation, spending and taxes: sand in the sandbox or tax collector for the welfare state?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1999. "On selecting policy analysis models by forecast accuracy," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9918, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  2. Jagjit Chadha & Philip Schellekens, 1998. "Utility Functions For Central Bankers: The Not So Drastic Quadratic," FMG Discussion Papers dp308, Financial Markets Group.
  3. Cook, S., 1996. "Econometric methodology I," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9618, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  4. Carlos Capistrán, 2006. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," Working Papers 2006-14, Banco de México.
  5. Davide Pettenuzzo & Halbert White, 2010. "Granger Causality, Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Working Papers 36, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  6. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-87, October.
  7. Babula, Ronald A. & Price, Gregory K., 2012. "New regulatory authority over significant price discovery contracts: An example of natural gas swaps with econometric applications," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 372-388.
  8. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: An exposition, extensions, and illustration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 465-495, August.
  9. Blake LeBaron, 2013. "Heterogeneous Agents and Long Horizon Features of Asset Prices," Working Papers 63, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School, revised Sep 2013.
  10. Ulph, A., 1993. "Environmental policy and international trade when governments and producers act strategically," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9318, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  11. Eric Ghysels & Norman R. Swanson & Myles Callan, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules with Model and Data Uncertainty," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 239-265, October.
  12. Ulph, A., 1995. "International environmental regulation when national governments act strategically," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9518, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  13. David Hendry & Grayham Mizon, 2001. "Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Policy Regime Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 2002-W12, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  14. Ulph, A., 1997. "Political institutions and the design of environmental policy in a federal system with asymmetric information," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9718, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  15. Qizilbash, M., 1994. "Bribery, efficiency wages and political protection," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9418, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  16. Aldrich, J., 1992. "Haavelmo's Identification Theory," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9218, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.

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