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Comments on the evaluation of policy models

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  • Granger, Clive W. J.
  • Deutsch, Melinda

Abstract

This paper examines the evaluation of models claimed to be relevant for policy making purposes. A number of tests are proposed to determine the usefulness of such models in the policy making process. These tests are applied to three empirical examples.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 14 (1992)
Issue (Month): 4 (August)
Pages: 497-516

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:14:y:1992:i:4:p:497-516

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

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References

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  1. Robert J. Barro & Mark Rush, 1979. "Unanticipated Money and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 0339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1990. "International Nominal Targeting (INT): A Proposal for Overcoming Obstacles to Policy Coordination," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4rn0t6wv, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  3. Kevin D. Hoover & Steven M. Sheffrin, 1990. "Causation, spending and taxes: sand in the sandbox or tax collector for the welfare state?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  4. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Causality, cointegration, and control," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 551-559.
  5. Hendry, David F. & Ericsson, Neil R., 1991. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 833-881, May.
  6. Dutkowsky, Donald H, 1984. " The Demand for Borrowed Reserves: A Switching Regression Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(2), pages 407-24, June.
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Cited by:
  1. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Policy Regime Shifts," Economics Papers 2002-W12, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  2. Carlos Capistrán-Carmona, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 127, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 1998. "Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 616, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1999. "On selecting policy analysis models by forecast accuracy," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9918, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  5. Aldrich, J., 1992. "Haavelmo's Identification Theory," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9218, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  6. Chadha, J.S. & Schellekens, P., 1998. "Utility functions for central bankers: the not so drastic quadratic," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9818, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  7. Qizilbash, M., 1994. "Bribery, efficiency wages and political protection," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9418, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  8. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: An exposition, extensions, and illustration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 465-495, August.
  9. Ulph, A., 1993. "Environmental policy and international trade when governments and producers act strategically," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9318, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  10. Eric Ghysels & Norman R. Swanson & Myles Callan, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules with Model and Data Uncertainty," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 239-265, October.
  11. Cook, S., 1996. "Econometric methodology I," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9618, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  12. Blake LeBaron, 2013. "Heterogeneous Agents and Long Horizon Features of Asset Prices," Working Papers 63, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School, revised Sep 2013.
  13. Babula, Ronald A. & Price, Gregory K., 2012. "New regulatory authority over significant price discovery contracts: An example of natural gas swaps with econometric applications," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 372-388.
  14. Ulph, A., 1997. "Political institutions and the design of environmental policy in a federal system with asymmetric information," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9718, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  15. Ulph, A., 1995. "International environmental regulation when national governments act strategically," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9518, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  16. Davide Pettenuzzo & Halbert White, 2010. "Granger Causality, Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Working Papers 36, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.

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