Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Policy Regime Shifts
AbstractThe value of selecting the best forecasting model as the basis for empirical economic policy analysis is questioned. When no model coincides with the data generation process, non-causal statistical devices may provide the best available forecasts: examples from recent work include intercept corrections and differenced-data VARs. However, the resulting models need have no policy implications. A 'paradox' may result if their forecasts induce policy changes which can be used to improve the statistical forecast. This suggests correcting statistical forecasts by using the econometric model's estimate of the 'scenario' change, and doing so yields reduced biases.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford in its series Economics Papers with number 2002-W12.
Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 11 Sep 2001
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Web page: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/
Other versions of this item:
- David Hendry & Grayham Mizon, 2001. "Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Policy Regime Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 2002-W12, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- NEP-ALL-2002-05-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2002-05-03 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2002-05-03 (Econometric Time Series)
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